2019年经济学人 剑拔弩张:美国伊朗撕裂核协议(3)（在线收听）

Predictably, rather than bringing Iran’s leaders to their knees, America’s belligerence has caused them to stiffen their spines. Even Mr Rouhani, who championed the nuclear deal, has begun to sound like a hawk. Having long hoped that Europe, at least, would honour the promise of the deal, he is exasperated. On the anniversary of America’s exit from the agreement, on May 8th, he said that Iran would begin stockpiling low-enriched uranium and heavy water, which would in sufficient quantities breach its terms. Without economic progress in 60 days, he said, Iran “will not consider any limit” on enrichment. All this suggests that Iran will start moving closer to being able to build a nuclear bomb.

可以预见的是，美国的好战并没有让伊朗领导人屈服，反而让他们更加强硬。就连支持核协议的鲁哈尼，其言论也像个鹰派人物。长期以来，鲁哈尼一直希望欧洲至少会信守协议的承诺，但现在他感到愤怒。5月8日是美国退出该协议的周年纪念日，他表示伊朗将开始储备低浓缩铀和重水，这将达到足够的数量违反协议条款。他说，如果60天内没有经济进展，伊朗“不会考虑任何限制”继续寻求发展。所有这一切都表明，伊朗将开始向拥有制造核弹的能力迈进。

As he walks his country towards the brink, Mr Rouhani has three audiences in mind. The first is his own hardliners, who detest the nuclear deal and have been pressing him to act. He appears to have appeased them, for now. On May 7th the front page of an ultraconservative newspaper declared: “Iran lighting match to set fire to the JCPOA.” He is also trying to get European companies to break with America. He will not succeed. Despite European Union attempts to design mechanisms that allow European businesses to skirt American sanctions, most of them have decided that the American market is too valuable.

在他带领国家走向崩溃之际，鲁哈尼想到了三个听众。第一个是他的强硬派，他们憎恨核协议，一直在敦促他采取行动。目前看来，他似乎已经安抚了他们。5月7日，一家极端保守主义报纸的头版宣称:“伊朗点燃了火柴，引起了核协议的火。” 鲁哈尼还试图让欧洲公司与美国决裂。他不会成功的。尽管欧盟试图设计一种机制，让欧洲企业绕开美国的制裁，但大多数企业都认为美国市场太有价值了。

Iran’s most important audience is America, with which it seems to be playing an old game. Iranian leaders have long seen the nuclear programme as their best bargaining chip with the West. Though they have claimed that it is peaceful, un inspectors have found enough evidence to suggest otherwise. The technology is the same whether power or a weapon is the ultimate goal. Iran’s centrifuges can produce a bomb faster than sanctions can topple the regime, goes the logic of hardliners. But they are wielding a double-edged sword. The threat of obtaining a nuclear weapon is useless if it does not seem credible. And if it is credible, it risks provoking military action by America or Israel.

伊朗最重要的听众是美国，他们似乎在玩一场老游戏。长期以来，伊朗领导人一直将核计划视为他们与西方讨价还价的最佳筹码。尽管他们声称这是和平的，但联合国核查人员已经发现了足够的证据表明事实并非如此。无论最终的目标是权力还是武器，技术都是一样的。强硬派的逻辑是，伊朗的离心机制造核弹的速度比制裁推翻政权的速度还要快。但他们正在挥舞一把双刃剑。如果核武器的威胁看上去不可信，那么它就毫无用处。如果这是可信的，就有可能引发美国或以色列的军事行动。