2019年经济学人 伦敦金融城能否挺过英国退欧(2)（在线收听）

London’s prowess is something to behold. It hosts 37% of the world’s currency dealing and 18% of cross-border lending. It is a hub for derivatives, asset management, insurance and investment banks. Relations with EUrope are particularly intimate. The City generates a quarter of its income from the continent, and EUrope gets a quarter of its financial services from London, often the most sophisticated ones. French or Italian firms go to London to meet investors or organise a takeover. When the EUropean Central Bank buys bonds as part of its monetary policy, the sellers are very often asset managers and banks domiciled in Britain. Some 90% of EUropean interest-rate swaps are cleared through the City’s plumbing.

伦敦的实力值得一看。中国拥有世界37%的外汇交易和18%的跨境贷款。它是衍生品、资产管理、保险和投资银行的中心。与欧洲的关系尤其密切。伦敦金融城四分之一的收入来自欧洲大陆，而欧洲四分之一的金融服务来自伦敦，这些金融服务往往是最复杂的。法国或意大利公司前往伦敦会见投资者或组织收购。当欧洲央行将购买债券作为其货币政策的一部分时，卖方往往是在英国注册的资产管理公司和银行。大约90%的欧洲利率掉期交易都是通过伦敦金融城的管道结算的。

The City’s history is long but serpentine. In 1873 Walter Bagehot, The Economist’s then-editor, wrote of its “natural pre-eminence”. In fact decades of decline lay ahead. A revival began in the 1960s when the offshore market for dollar lending boomed. Another lift came with the stockmarket deregulation of Big Bang in 1986 and again after 2000 when London became a centre for trading the Euro and emerging markets. Even the financial crisis of 2008 did not do much damage to the City’s standing abroad. Today the magic formula has many parts: openness to people and capital, the time zone, proximity to subsea data cables, and posh schools. But, above all, it relies on stable politics and regulation, close ties to America and seamless ones to Europe. Brexit and Mr Corbyn threaten this formula in three ways.

这座城市的历史悠久，但很曲折。1873年，时任《经济学人》编辑的沃尔特?白芝浩曾写道，它“天生卓越”。事实上，数十年的衰退还在后面。上世纪60年代，离岸美元贷款市场蓬勃发展，复苏由此开始。另一个提振因素是1986年股市对“金融大爆炸”的放松管制，2000年伦敦成为欧元和新兴市场的交易中心后又一次放松管制。即便是2008年的金融危机也没有对伦敦金融城的国际地位造成太大损害。如今，这个神奇的公式有很多部分：对人和资本的开放、时区、接近海底数据电缆以及豪华的学校。但最重要的是，它依赖于稳定的政治和监管、与美国的密切关系以及与欧洲的无缝连接。英国退欧和科尔宾在三方面威胁着这一模式。