2019年经济学人 利比亚--四分五裂(1)（在线收听）

Leaders

来源于《社论》版块

Libya

利比亚

A country apart

四分五裂的国家

How to put Libya together

如何把利比亚团结起来

“If the sun lost its gravity, its gases would explode and its unity would no longer exist. Accordingly, unity is the basis for survival. Muammar Qaddafi’s “Green Book”, his rambling political manifesto, is full of pabulum. But the former Libyan dictator was right about the importance of unity, something his country has sorely lacked since he was killed in a revolution in 2011.

“如果太阳失去引力，气体就会爆炸，统一性就不复存在。”因此，团结是生存的基础。穆阿迈尔?卡扎菲杂乱无章的政治宣言《绿皮书》是满满的精神食粮。但这位利比亚前独裁者对团结的重要性的看法是正确的，自2011年他在一场革命中丧生以来，利比亚一直严重缺乏团结。

Libya has been mired in conflict ever since, creating a jihadist playground and a jumping-off point for migrants desperate to reach Europe. The latest fighting pits the "government of national accord" (GNA) in Tripoli against the self-styled Libyan National Army (LNA), under Khalifa Haftar, which rules by fear in the east and south. The UN was trying to bring them together when he at-tacked Tripoli in April—while the secretary-general was in town.

自那以后，利比亚就陷入了冲突的泥潭，为渴望进入欧洲的移民创造了一个圣战分子的乐园和出发点。在最近的战斗中，的黎波里的“民族团结政府”与哈里发?哈夫塔领导下的自封的利比亚国民军展开对抗。当联合国秘书长还在的黎波里时，他于4月袭击了的黎波里，当时联合国正试图将他们团结起来。

Peace is a distant prospect. But the West has an interest and a responsibility to help repair Libya. NATO members led by Britain and France supported the revolution with air strikes—then watched as the country sank into chaos. Barack Obama says that failing to plan for the day after Qaddafi was the "biggest mistake" of his presidency. America and Europe can start to fix that omission by putting their weight behind a UN-led peace process.

和平是一个遥远的前景。但西方有兴趣也有责任帮助修复利比亚。以英国和法国为首的北约成员国以空袭支持革命，然后眼睁睁地看着这个国家陷入混乱。巴拉克?奥巴马表示，未能为卡扎菲下台后的第二天做好计划是他总统任期内的“最大错误”。美国和欧洲可以通过支持联合国主导的和平进程来弥补这一遗漏。

Mr Haftar believes that Libya can be stabilised only by a strongman (himself, naturally). Some foreign powers seem to agree. Egypt, France, Russia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) have supported him. America has flirted with him. But their calculus is flawed. Mr Haftar needed three years just to take Benghazi, the country’s second city, which he flattened in the attempt. In April the LNA said that it would take days to capture Tripoli, but today it is still fighting—and losing ground. The militias of Misrata, who are stronger foes, lie in wait for him. Far from stabilising Libya, Mr Haftar is sowing more chaos.

哈夫塔认为，利比亚的稳定只能靠一个铁腕人物(当然是他自己)。一些外国势力似乎也同意这一观点。法国、俄罗斯和阿联酋都支持他。美国已经向他示好。但他们的打算是有缺陷的。哈夫塔花了三年时间才拿下班加西，班加西是利比亚第二大城市，在他的努力下，班加西被夷为平地。四月，利比亚国家通讯社曾表示，夺取的黎波里需要几天的时间，但今天，它仍在战斗，并在节节败退。米苏拉塔的民兵是更强大的敌人，他们埋伏在那里等待他。哈夫塔非但没有稳定利比亚局势，反而在制造更多的混乱。