2019年经济学人 利比亚--四分五裂(2)（在线收听）

The LNA'S backers risk turning the civil war into a regional conflict. Egypt and the UAE are the source of most of the weapons flowing into Libya (some of which were made in America), but Turkey, which opposes their anti-Islamist agenda, has lately tried to even things out by supplying the militias that prop up the GNA. Even with help, neither side in Libya looks able to achieve absolute victory. The LNA is overstretched and short of cash; the GNA is weak and unpopular. War will only prolong the country’s misery. A single attack on July 3rd killed more than 44 people at a detention centre near Tripoli; each side blamed the other.

利比亚国民军的支持者冒着将内战变成地区冲突的风险。埃及和阿联酋是流入利比亚的大部分武器的来源国(其中一些是美国制造的)，但是土耳其反对他们的反伊斯兰议程，最近试图通过向支持民族团结政府的民兵提供武器来平衡局势。即使有了帮助，利比亚的任何一方看起来都无法取得绝对的胜利。利比亚国民军资金紧张，现金短缺；民族团结政府软弱且不受欢迎。战争只会延长这个国家的苦难。7月3日在的黎波里附近的一个拘留中心发生的一起袭击造成44人死亡；双方互相指责。

The good news is that a once-divided Europe has begun to narrow its differences over Libya, and that, now Mr Haftar no longer looks a winner, America seems to have cooled on him. Together they should lean on other countries to stop fuelling the war—and threaten to punish those who violate the UN arms embargo, which has been in place, but rarely enforced, since 2011. No progress can be made until a ceasefire is reached, but that should not stop new thinking about the peace. Too much focus has been placed on getting a deal between Fayez al-Serraj, the head of the GNA, and Mr Haftar. A broader dialogue is needed, involving representatives from the east, west and south. Countries, such as Egypt, France and Italy, with interests in Libya should also have a voice.

好消息是，一度分裂的欧洲已经开始缩小在利比亚问题上的分歧，而现在哈夫塔似乎不再是赢家，美国似乎对他冷淡了。他们应该联合起来，依靠其他国家停止助长战争，并威胁惩罚那些违反联合国武器禁运的国家。自2011年以来，联合国一直实施武器禁运，但很少执行。除非达成停火协议，否则不会取得任何进展，但这不应阻止人们对和平的新思考。民族团结政府主席Fayez al-Serraj和哈夫塔先生之间的交易被过分关注。现在需要更广泛的对话，包括和来自东方、西方和南方的代表对话。埃及、法国和意大利等在利比亚有利益的国家也应该有发言权。

That is not so different from what the UN was planning when the LNA launched its attack. Ghassan Salame, its envoy to Libya, proposed holding a national conference that would bring together rival factions to agree on a new constitution and electoral law, leading to elections. It is still a sensible plan. America and Europe should make it credible by supporting it.

这与利比亚国民军发动袭击时联合国的计划并没有太大不同。该国驻利比亚特使加桑?萨拉姆提议举行一次全国会议，召集敌对派系就新宪法和选举法达成一致，从而导致选举。这仍然是一个明智的计划。美国和欧洲应该通过支持它使其可信。