2019年经济学人土耳其经济(1)（打印版）

Turkey's economy had just begun to show signs of recovery.

土耳其经济刚出现复苏的迹象。

High interest rates, a measure of calm following local elections earlier this year

今年年初地方选举后的一项平静措施—高利率

and attempts to rebuild a strained relationship with America had allowed the lira,

以及试图改善与美国紧张的关系，让里拉得以升值，

which fell by 12% against the dollar in the first four months of the year, to strengthen.

在今年前四个月，里拉兑美元贬值12%。

Inflation had fallen to 16%, from 25% last autumn.

通货膨胀从去年秋季的25%降至16%。

But in the small hours of July 6th Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey's president,

但在7月6日这一天的午夜过后，土耳其总统雷杰普·塔伊普·埃尔多安

put the progress in jeopardy by sacking Murat Cetinkaya, the boss of the central bank.

解除了中央银行行长穆拉特·切廷卡亚的职务，让这一进展陷入危险之中。

Though Mr Cetinkaya was not widely admired by investors, his peremptory removal unsettled markets.

虽然切廷卡亚没有受到投资者的广泛赞赏，但他被强制撤职引起了市场的不安。

Mr Erdogan compounded the damage by proclaiming that high lending rates were to blame for inflation

埃尔多安宣称高贷款利率是通货膨胀的罪魁祸首，

(a view roundly mocked by economists) and making clear that it was he who was in charge of monetary policymaking.

（这一观点遭到了经济学家的嘲笑）并明确表示，负责货币政策制定的是他，这使情况雪上加霜。

"We told him several times to cut interest rates at meetings on the economy," said the president of Mr Cetinkaya.

“我们多次在经济会议上告诉他要降息，”行长切廷卡亚表示。

"We said that if rates fall, inflation will fall. He didn't do what was necessary."

“我们说过，如果利率下降，通货膨胀也会下降。他没有做必要的事。”

Mr Erdogan scored an own goal, says Paul McNamara, an investment director at GAM, an asset manager.

埃尔多安打进了一个乌龙球，全球资产管理公司投资总监保罗·麦克纳马拉表示。

"The best case is that they get a lira sell-off that keeps rates higher than they otherwise would have been.

最好的情况是，他们抛售里拉，让利率保持在高于正常情况下的水平。

The worst case is that they set off a currency avalanche."

最糟糕的情况是，他们引发了一场货币雪崩。”

Mr Cetinkaya's sacking showed that hopes of a respite in Turkish politics after the local elections were misplaced,

切廷卡亚被撤职表明，在地方选举后土耳其政治得到喘息的希望错位了，

says Wolfango Piccoli of Teneo, a risk-advisory firm.

风险咨询公司Teneo的Wolfango Piccoli表示。

The lira plunged by over 3% against the dollar when trading began on July 8th, before recovering slightly.

7月8日开盘时，里拉兑美元骤跌超过3%，之后略有回升。

Turkey's stockmarket index dropped by 1.5%.

土耳其股市指数下跌1.5%。