2019年经济学人汇率操纵(2)（打印版）

The Commerce Department's would allow its officials to declare a country a manipulator even if the Treasury had not.

美国商务部将允许其官员宣布一个国家为汇率操纵国，即便财政部没有这样做。

Companies seeking an unfair edge over foreign competitors would no doubt lobby hard.

寻求对外国竞争对手不公平优势的公司无疑会大力游说。

The measures suggested by Mr Bergsten and Mr Gagnon would grant Mr Trump huge financial firepower—

伯格斯登和加农提出的建议将赋予特朗普巨大的财力—

dangerous, given his penchant for using whatever weapon is to hand to fight his trade wars.

鉴于他喜欢用手中的任何武器来打他的贸易战，这样很危险。

They think the Treasury should be allowed to use the ESF to neutralise currency intervention by other countries with equal and opposite purchases,

他们认为财政部应该被允许利用ESF，通过同等和反向购买来抵消其他国家的货币干预

thus deterring the intervention in the first place. But to be credible it would need hundreds of billions of dollars at its disposal.

从而从一开始便阻止干预。但要做到令人信服，它将需要数千亿美元可自行支配的资金。

Its current portfolio is around $95bn, of which $23bn is in dollars.

其目前的投资组合约为950亿美元，其中230亿美元为美元资产。

Moreover, unilateral action might lead other central banks to retaliate.

此外，单边行动可能会招致其他中央银行的报复。

Mark Sobel, a former Treasury official who managed the ESF, worries that a currency conflict might even push the dollar up,

管理ESF的前财政部官员Mark Sobel担心，如果投资者匆忙转向以美元标价的资产寻求安全，

if investors scurried for safety into dollar-denominated assets.

那么货币冲突甚至可能将推高美元。

Stephen Englander of Standard Chartered, a bank,

渣打银行的史蒂文·英格兰德

warns American policymakers to "think about how you're going to feel the morning after".

警告美国政策制定者要“想想你第二天早上会有什么感觉”。

Intervention means buying unpopular currencies.

干预意味着购买不受欢迎的货币。

Mr Bergsten and Mr Gagnon argue that their scheme could make the Treasury money as undervalued currencies rise.

伯格斯登和加农辩称，随着估值偏低的货币升值，他们的计划能够为财务部挣钱。

But negative yields on European and Japanese debt make losses at least as plausible.

但欧洲和日本债务的负收益至少让损失看起来是合理的。

One more reason for caution is the potential for further harming an already-fragile multilateral system.

谨慎的另一个原因是，这有可能会进一步损害本已脆弱的多边体系。

Previous American administrations considered tariffs on imports from countries manipulating their currencies,

前几届美国政府考虑过要对操纵货币的国家的进口征收关税，

arguing that an artificially weak exchange rate amounted to an export subsidy.

并称人为压低汇率相当于出口补贴。

But they held back, understanding that such action would break the World Trade Organisation's rules.

但他们退缩了，因为他们明白，这样的行为将违反世界贸易组织的规则。

A reversal would invite legal challenge, and perhaps retaliatory tariffs. The bellicose Mr Trump, however, would be unlikely to mind.

这种逆转将招致法律上的挑战，或许还会招致报复性关税。但好斗的特朗普可能并不在意。