2019年经济学人 美国核条令(1)（在线收听）

Nuclear doctrine 

核战略思想

Finger on the button 

按钮上的手指

If America ruled out using nuclear weapons first the world would not be any safer 

如果美国首先排除使用核武器的可能性，世界也不会更安全

In 1973 Major Harold Hering, a veteran pilot and trainee missile-squadron commander, asked his superiors a question: if told to fire his nuclear-tipped rockets, how would he know that the orders were lawful, legitimate and from a sane president? Soon after, Major Hering was pulled from duty and later kicked out of the air force for his “mental and moral reservations”.

1973年，资深飞行员兼导弹中队见习指挥官哈罗德·赫林少校向上级提出了一个问题：如果让他发射装有核弹头的火箭，他怎么知道这些命令是合法的、合理的，而且来自一位理智的总统？不久之后，赫林少校因“精神和道德上的保留意见”而被撤职，后来被空军开除。

His question hit a nerve because there was, and remains, no check on a president’s authority to launch nuclear weapons. That includes launching them first, before America has been nuked itself. The United States has refused to rule out dropping a nuclear bomb on an enemy that has used only conventional weapons, since it first did so in1945.

他的问题触动了人们的神经，因为过去和现在都没有对总统发射核武器的权力进行检查。这包括在美国自己被核攻击之前先发射核武器。美国拒绝排除向只使用常规武器的敌人投掷核弹的可能性，自从1945年首次这样做以来。

Many people think this calculated ambiguity is a bad idea. It is unnecessary, because America is strong enough to repel conventional attacks with conventional arms. And it increases the risk of accidents and misunderstandings. If, when the tide of a conventional war turns, Russia or China fears that America may unexpectedly use nukes, they will put their own arsenals on high alert, to preserve them. If America calculates that its rivals could thus be tempted to strike early, it may feel under pressure to go first—and so on, nudging the world towards the brink.

许多人认为这种故意的模棱两可是一个坏主意。没有必要这么想，因为美国有足够的实力用常规武器击退常规攻击。这种想法还增加了事故和误解的风险。如果常规战争爆发，俄罗斯或中国担心美国会出人意料地使用核武器，出于保护目的将把自己的军火库置于高度戒备状态。如果美国算计到其竞争对手可能因此受到提前出击的诱惑，那么可能会感到压力，不得不先下手为强——以此类推，将世界推向崩溃的边缘。

Elizabeth Warren, a Democratic contender for the presidency, is one of many who want to remedy this by committing America, by law, to a policy of No First Use (NFU). India and China have already declared NFU, or something close, despite having smaller, more vulnerable arsenals.

民主党总统候选人伊丽莎白·沃伦是众多希望通过法律规定美国实行“不首先使用”的政策来弥补这一缺陷的人之一。尽管印度和中国拥有更小、更脆弱的核武库，但两国已经宣布了“不首先使用”的政策，或类似的计划。