2019年经济学人英国经济(1)（打印版）

Since Britain voted to leave the European Union (EU) in June 2016, Leavers have been gloating.

自2016年6月英国投票离开欧盟（EU）以来，脱欧派一直洋洋得意。

Despite the Remain camp's dire predictions, the economy seemed to trundle on well enough.

尽管留欧阵营做出了可怕的预测，但英国的经济似乎运转良好。

But the crowing is dying down. Figures released on August 9th showed that Britain's GDP shrank in the second quarter.

但这种得意正在消亡。8月9日公布的数据显示英国第二季度GDP有所下降。

And a growing body of research suggests that Brexit-related uncertainty is doing subtle but serious economic damage.

也有越来越多的研究表明，和脱欧相关的不确定正在造成微妙但严重的经济损害。

A paper published early this year by Meredith Crowley,

今年年初，由剑桥大学的梅雷迪思·克劳利、

Oliver Exton and Lu Han of the University of Cambridge reckons that uncertainty over trade policy has dented export prospects.

奥利弗·埃克斯顿以及卢汉共同发表的一篇论文认为贸易政策的不确定性削弱了出口前景。

Had the vote not taken place, 5% more firms would have exported new products to the EU in 2016 alone.

如果没有脱欧投票，预计仅在2016年还将会有5%的公司出口新产品。

After the referendum economists from the Bank of England, the University of Nottingham

公投后，来自英国银行、诺丁汉大学以及斯坦福大学的经济学家

and Stanford University set up the "Decision-maker panel", a survey that regularly polls executives across the country's industries and regions.

组建了“决策者小组”，定期对全国各行业和各地区高管进行调查。

In a new paper the researchers examine the responses of 5,900 firms,

在一篇新论文中，研究人员对5900家公司的反馈进行了调查，

representing 14% of privatesector jobs, to gauge the effect of Brexit uncertainty on business.

以评估脱欧不确定性对商业的影响，这些公司占私营部门就业岗位的14%。

The results are startling. The uncertainty that comes with a rise in oil prices or an unexpected bank failure can be costly,

结果令人吃惊。油价上涨或银行意外倒闭所带来的不确定性虽然代价高昂，

but typically abates as more information becomes available. Brexit uncertainty is unusually persistent—

但通常会随着可获得信息的增多而减弱。脱欧的不确定性异常持久—

after all, three years after the vote, the terms of departure are still unclear.

毕竟，投票三年后，脱欧条款仍然不确定。