2019年经济学人 英国经济(2)（在线收听）

The authors track the share of bosses reporting that Brexit is one of the top three sources of uncertainty, if not the biggest, facing their business.

作者们追踪了这些高管们的股票并报告称就算脱欧不是他们企业所面临的最大不确定性，也是三大不确定性来源之一。

This remained elevated a full two years after the referendum,

在公投结束整整两年后，这一不确定性仍在增长，

then rose further in 2018 as stalling talks with the EU raised the odds of a no-deal Brexit.

然后在2018年，和欧盟谈判暂缓增加了无协议脱欧的概率，不确定性进一步增加。

Bosses reporting greater uncertainty also appear to have scaled back investment more.

声称不确定性增加了的高管们似乎也削减了更多投资。

But the depressing effect is not quite what forecasters had envisaged in 2016.

但这一令人沮丧的影响和预测者们2016年所设想的不太一样。

They had pencilled in a steep drop in investment immediately after the vote that would ease as firms adjusted to the new world.

他们预测在公投后，随着公司调整适应了新世界，投资的极具下滑会得到缓解。

But in fact the drag on investment has worsened over time. (The effect of uncertainty on hiring is more ambiguous.)

但事实上，随着时间的推移，对投资的阻碍已经恶化。（不确定性对招聘的影响更加模糊。）

Importantly, the deceleration in investment has had significant knock-on effects on Britain's productivity, which even before the referendum was dismal.

重要的是，投资减速对英国生产能力造成了重大连锁反应，即便是在公投之前，英国生产能力就很糟糕。

That is partly because managers have been forced to spend valuable time planning.

部分原因是因为经理人被迫花费宝贵的时间做规划。

Between November 2018 and January 2019, nearly three-quarters of bosses put aside time each week to prepare for various outcomes.

在2018年11月到2019年1月之间，近四分之三的的高管们每周都会抽出时间为各种结果做准备。

But uncertainty has also been a bigger burden on exporters, which tend to be more productive than firms catering to the home market.

但不确定性也给出口者带来了更大的负担，他们往往比迎合国内市场的公司更具生产能力。

All told, productivity is 2-5% lower than it would have been without the uncertainty.

总的来说，如果没有这种不确定性，生产率会比现在低2-5%。

Brexit still carries plenty of unknowns. The effect on Britain's economy, though, is becoming ever clearer.

脱欧仍然有着很多的不确定性。虽然这种不确定性对英国经济的影响变得越来越清晰。