VOA常速英语2019--无协议脱欧混乱将如何影响发展中经济体？（在线收听）

How Will No-Deal Brexit Chaos Affect Developing Economies?

Brexit will affect not only Britain’s relations with the European Union but also with hundreds of other countries with which Britain currently trades on EU terms.London has negotiated new post-Brexit trade arrangements with several countries including Central American nations, Switzerland and South Korea among others,but that leaves hundreds of states from smaller economies to relative giants like Japan and Canada with whom trade would revert to World Trade Organization terms after a no-deal Brexit and striking new trade deals won’t be easy.“Many countries with whom we try and do trade deals will say to us:“Yeah, that would be great. We quite like to know what your relationship with the European Union is going to be before we sign anything with you, though.So, all roads lead to Brussels.”Such uncertainty doesn’t help countries that sell goods to Britain.Kenya exports cut flowers, fruit and vegetables with total exports to Britain estimated at four hundred million dollars per year.Bangladesh exports almost four billion dollars’ worth of goods to Britain currently traded under the EU’s preferential rules of origin which allocates zero or low tariffs on goods from developing countries and no deal Brexit will likely mean disruption.“The problem is that, that will erode the preferences that some of these countries receive, so, for example, the advantage other countries such as Bangladesh and Cambodia have on, on certain products because they have access with a lower tariff that would be removed.”Speaking last month, the head of the Africa Development Bank warned that the combination of a no-deal Brexit and the US-China trade war were hitting African economies.

英国脱欧不仅将影响英国与欧盟的关系，而且还将影响英国和目前与英国按照欧盟条款进行贸易的其他数百个国家的关系。伦敦与中美洲国家、瑞士和韩国等多个国家就英国脱欧后的新贸易安排进行了谈判，但这将使数百个国家从规模较小的经济体转向日本和加拿大等相对大国，在无协议退欧后，与这些国家的贸易将恢复到世界贸易组织的条款，达成新的贸易协议并不容易。“我们试图与之达成贸易协议的许多国家都会对我们说：‘是啊，那太好了。不过，我们很想知道，在我们与你签署任何协议之前，你与欧盟的关系会是怎样的。’所以，所有的道路都通向布鲁塞尔。”这种不确定性对向英国出售商品的国家毫无帮助。肯尼亚出口插瓶花、水果和蔬菜，对英国的出口总额估计为每年4亿美元。加拉国目前向英国出口价值近40亿美元的商品，这些商品是根据欧盟的优惠原产地规则进行贸易的，欧盟对来自发展中国家的商品征收零关税或低关税，无协议脱欧可能意味着商品中断。“问题是，这将削弱其中一些国家在某些产品上获得的优惠，例如孟加拉国和柬埔寨等其他国家在某些产品上的优惠，因为它们可以获得较低的关税，而这一较低的关税将被取消。”上个月发表讲话时非洲开发银行行长警告称，无协议退欧和美中贸易战正在双重打击非洲经济。

“The industrial capacity has fallen significantly, and so the demand even for products and raw materials of Africa will only fall even further,so the effect of that will have a ripple effect on African economies as a demand for their products weakened from China.”Britain meanwhile is stepping up its search for new trade deals with minister’s visiting New Zealand, Australia and Japan this week,many of these nations’ companies have huge investments in Britain and fear the chaotic fallout of a no-deal Brexit.Overall, for smaller economies, the impact is likely to be less severe.“African country seems to be quite more relaxed, or developing the more relaxed,except some specific countries that trade a lot with the UK about the prospect of, of, of a no deal and this is because, well, the UK has lost over many years the sort of importance in there as a destination of exports for many of these countries.”A no-deal Brexit would hit the economies of many EU states like Ireland, Germany and the Netherlands,but analysts say it is in Britain where the impact will inevitably be felt hardest of all.

“工业产能大幅下降，因此即使是对非洲产品和原材料的需求也只会进一步下降，因此，随着中国对非洲经济体产品的需求减弱，这种影响将对非洲经济产生连锁反应。”与此同时，英国正加紧寻找新的贸易协议，本周，英国大臣访问了新西兰、澳大利亚和日本，这些国家的许多公司在英国都有巨额投资，担心无协议退欧带来的混乱后果。总体而言，对较小的经济体而言，影响可能不会那么严重。“非洲国家对于无协议脱欧的前景似乎感到更为轻松，或者说发展得更为宽松，除了一些与英国有着大量贸易往来的特定国家，这是因为，嗯，多年来，英国已经失去了作为这些国家出口目的地的重要性。”无协议脱欧将对爱尔兰、德国和荷兰等许多欧盟国家的经济造成打击，但分析人士表示，英国是不可避免地受到影响最严重的国家。