2019年经济学人 煤炭与气候变化(1)（在线收听）

煤炭与气候变化(1)

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来源于《社论》版块

Coal and climate change煤炭与气候变化

Betting on black押注煤炭 前途昏暗

Asian governments are the biggest supporters of the filthiest fuel亚洲政府是最脏燃料的最大支持者

In the dense gloom about climate change, news of coal’s decline seems like a pinprick of hope. President Donald Trump may adore “beautiful, clean coal”, but even he cannot save it. A growing number of countries want to phase out coal entirely, a transition eased by cheap natural gas and the plunging cost of wind and solar power.在气候变化的阴霾中，煤炭产量下降的消息似乎是一丝希望。美国总统唐纳德?特朗普或许崇尚“美丽、清洁的煤炭”，但即便是特朗普也无法拯救煤炭。越来越多的国家希望完全淘汰煤炭，廉价的天然气和大幅下降的风能和太阳能发电成本缓和了过渡过程。

That is good news. Coal has been the largest engine of climate change to date, accounting for nearly a third of the rise in average temperatures since the Industrial Revolution. Any pressure on it therefore counts as progress.这是个好消息。迄今为止，煤炭一直是气候变化的最大引擎，在工业革命以来平均气温的上升中占了近三分之一。因此，对煤炭施加的任何压力都被视为进步。

However, last year coal-fired electricity emitted more than ten gigatonnes of carbon dioxide for the first time, 30% of the world’s total. It may be in decline in the West, but many Asian governments continue to promote coal-fired power generation. They are making a dangerous bet.然而，去年燃煤发电首次排放了超过100亿吨的二氧化碳，占世界总量的30%。在西方，这一比例可能正在下降，但许多亚洲国家的政府仍在继续推广燃煤发电。他们在下一个危险的赌注。

Asia accounts for 75% of the world’s coal demand—China alone consumes half of it. The Chinese government has taken steps to limit pollution and support renewables. Yet coal consumption there rose in 2018, as it did the year before. In India coal demand grew by 9% last year. In Vietnam it swelled by almost a quarter. To keep the rise in global temperatures to no more than 1.5°C relative to pre-industrial times, climatologists insist that almost all coal plants must shut by 2050, which means starting to act now. Today’s trends would keep the last coal plant open until 2079, estimates UBS, a bank. Asia’s coal-fired power regiment has a sprightly average age of 15, compared with a creaky 40 years in America, close to retirement.亚洲占世界煤炭需求的75%，仅中国就占了一半。中国政府已经采取措施限制污染，支持可再生能源。然而，与前2017年一样，2018年中国的煤炭消费量有所上升。去年印度的煤炭需求增长了9%。在越南，这一数字增长了近四分之一。为了将全球气温相对于工业化前时期的上升幅度控制在1.5摄氏度以内，气候学家坚持认为，到2050年，几乎所有的燃煤电厂都必须关闭，这意味着现在就要开始行动。据瑞士联合银行估计，按照目前的趋势，最后一家燃煤电厂将一直运营到2079年。亚洲燃煤电厂的平均运行年限是15年，而美国勉强维持40年，最后接近退休状态。