2019年经济学人 货币市场和美联储(3)（在线收听）

The surplus reserves banks hold in their deposit accounts at the Fed fell from $2.2trn in 2017 to $1.4trn now.

银行在美联储的存款账户中持有的盈余准备金从2017年的2.2万亿美元降至现在的1.4万亿美元。

No one knows how much surplus cash banks need to feel comfortable. That depends partly on regulations,

没人知道银行需要多少剩余现金才能安心。这部分取决于监管，

which have increased the amount of cash banks must hold as a buffer, but also on business sentiment.

监管提高了银行必须持有的现金额以作缓冲，但也取决于商业情绪。

Banks' near-death experience in 2008-09 has left them with a strong desire to hold plenty of extra cash.

银行在2008年至2009年的濒死经历，让他们强烈希望持有大量额外现金。

Economists have attempted to estimate the level at which banks would start to squirm, most coming up with estimates of $1.2trn-1.5trn.

经济学家试图估计银行将开始动荡的程度，多数人估计为1.2万亿至1.5万亿美元。

Usually banks have at least this much on hand. But they may not have had on September 16th, for quite benign reasons.

通常银行手头至少有这么多钱。但由于一些良性原因，他们可能在9月16日这一天手头没有多钱。

That was the deadline for quarterly corporatetax payments, meaning companies asked banks for more cash than usual.

这一天是公司每季度缴纳公司税的最后期限，这意味着公司向银行索要的现金比平时多。

The Treasury had issued $77bn-worth of bills the previous week. The buyers, mostly banks, also had to pay on September 16th.

上一周，美国财政部发行了价值770亿美元的国债。买家，多为银行，也需要在9月16日付款。

The Fed expected these events, said Jerome Powell, its chairman, but not such an extreme reaction.

美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔表示，美联储预料到了这些事件，但没想到会有如此极端的反应。

As banks' cash piles shrank, they grew reluctant to lend to companies and other counterparties.

随着银行现金储备萎缩，他们越来越不愿意贷款给公司和其他交易对手。

The repo rate spiked. Some banks stepped in, lending to companies at elevated rates.

回购利率飙升。一些银行介入，以高利率贷款给企业。

But then those banks tried to borrow from other banks in the federal funds market, pushing up the rate. This prompted the Fed to intervene.

但后来这些银行试图从联邦基金市场的其他银行借款，从而推高了利率。这促使美联储介入。

Cash would have become scarce sooner or later, says Bill English of Yale University.

耶鲁大学的比尔·英格利希表示，现金迟早会变得稀缺。

In a growing economy—especially one with a rising government deficit—the demand for bank cash increases over time.

在一个不断增长的经济体中—特别是在一个政府赤字不断增加的经济体中—对银行现金的需求会随着时间的推移而增加。

The Fed now faces a choice. It could return to conducting frequent open market operations to pin down interest rates, as before the crisis.

现在美联储面临着一个选择。它可能会像危机前一样，恢复频繁的公开市场操作，以稳定利率。

Or it could keep the current system and avert future cash shortages

或者，它可以保持当前的体系，避免未来的现金短缺

by expanding its balance-sheet enough to keep the banking system permanently saturated with liquidity, even as demand for cash grows.

方式是通过充分扩张其资产负债表以使银行系统永远保持流动性饱和，即使对现金的需求不断增长。

On September 18th Mr Powell suggested that the Fed would opt for the latter,

9月18日，鲍威尔暗示美联储将选择后者，

saying it wanted reserves to be ample enough to avoid operations of the sort carried out in recent days.

并称美联储希望外汇储备足够充足，以避免最近几天实施的那种操作。

He also announced technical tweaks that will mean banks are compensated a little less handsomely for cash deposited at the Fed,

他也宣布了一些技术上的调整，这意味着银行存入美联储的现金获得的补偿少了一些，

which might encourage them to lend a little more in the repo market instead.

这或许能够鼓励他们转而在回购市场多放贷。

It is unclear how quickly balance-sheet expansion might be resumed. This week's events suggest it may be soon.

目前尚不清楚资产负债表的扩张会以多快的速度恢复。本周的事件表明或许很快。

As Mr Powell said after the Fed's meeting, "I think we'll learn quite a lot in the next six weeks."

正如鲍威尔在美联储会议后所说的，“我想在接下来的六周我们会学到很多。”