2019年经济学人波音VS空客(2)（打印版）

In a sector like aircraft manufacturing, where subsidies are ubiquitous,

在一个像飞机制造这样的部门中，补贴无处不在，

it has always been clear that America and the EU needed to agree to mutual disarmament.

很明显，美国和欧盟需要就相互裁军达成一致。

Instead, they have talked past each other, each complaining at various points that the other was unwilling to negotiate.

相反，他们只是各执一词，各自在不同的地方抱怨对方不愿谈判。

Most recently it has been the EU that has submitted proposals to America, only to be rebuffed.

最近是欧盟向美国提交了提案，却遭到拒绝。

Meanwhile, the boxes have been piling up and the lawyers raking in fees.

与此同时，箱子越堆越高，律师们也赚了不少钱。

The Trump administration wasted no time in starting the formalities at the WTO that will allow it to apply the tariffs.

特朗普政府不失时机地在WTO开始了允许其实施关税的手续。

That means the EU can expect tariffs on October 18th.

这意味着将在10月18日对欧盟征收关税。

As well as tariffs of 10% on large aircraft and 25% on agricultural and industrial goods,

除了对大型飞机征收10%的关税以及对农工产品征收25%的关税外，

the list the USTR published on October 2nd included Italian Parmesan, Scotch whisky and German waffles.

USTR在10月日公布的名单中还包括意大利的帕尔玛干酪、苏格兰威士忌酒以及德国华夫饼干。

Even if a product is not on the list it may still be hit, as items could be shuffled in and out.

即便是不在名单中的产品仍有可能命中，因为产品条目可以被添加和删减。

For all the fuss the dispute will generate among connoisseurs of European cheese, the biggest impact will be on aircraft,

这场纠纷将会在欧洲奶酪鉴赏家中引起轩然大波，受影响最大的将是飞机，

of which America imported $5.1bn-worth in 2018, mostly from France and Germany (the USTR has said that only a portion will be hit).

2018年美国进口了价值51亿美元的飞机，大部分是从法国和德国进口（USTR表示只有一部分将受到打击）。

It could have been worse—the Americans could have applied a tariff of up to 100%—but even one of 10% will bite.

情况本会更糟——美国本可以征收最高为100%的关税——但即使是10%的关税也会产生影响。

American airlines fear that tariffs will raise the price of Airbus aircraft, and that Boeing will lack the capacity to expand supply.

美国航空公司担心关税会提高空客飞机的价格，也担心波音将缺乏扩大供应的能力。

Perhaps the WTO will find that the EU has removed its subsidies, and the Americans will stand down.

大概WTO将发现欧盟已经取消了它的补贴，美国人将会退出。

Or in eight months'time, when the WTO authorises the EU to place retaliatory tariffs on American imports as part of the Boeing dispute,

或者在八个月的时间里，在这场波音纠纷中，当WTO授权欧盟对美国进口征收报复性关税时，

the two sides might finally negotiate away their differences. By then Mr Trump's appetite for tariffs may have been sated,

双方可能最终通过谈判消除分歧。到那时，特朗普对关税的胃口可能已经得到极大满足，

and he might abandon separate threats to put tariffs on European cars and car parts.

并且他可能会放弃对欧洲汽车和汽车零部件征收关税的威胁。

But it is also possible that trade disputes between the two sides become fiercer.

但也有可能双方贸易纠纷愈演愈烈。

America is blocking the appointment of judges to the WTO's court of appeals.

美国正在阻止WTO上诉法院法官的任命。

If either side makes a move that the other judges an infraction, and a complaint to the WTO cannot be heard for lack of judges,

如果任何一方采取了另一方认为违规的行动，，并由于缺乏法官，向WTO提出的申诉无法得到审理

that could be the end of playing by the rules.

那么这可能是按规矩办事的终结。