2019年经济学人 如何打破大型科技公司的垄断(4)（在线收听）

Even though most analysts assume that the separate parts are worth more than the whole, could the opposite be true? Breakups could destroy value. Synergies would evaporate, points out Amit Daryanani of Evercore ISI, a financial firm. Apple may no longer be able to offer a tightly integrated package of hardware, software and services, which is its main competitive advantage. If Amazon were shorn of cloud-computing arm, it would lose its most profitable business, making whatever is left a less attractive investment. It is also unclear how markets would react if divestitures were to weaken network effects, the economic forces that let big firms get bigger and are pervasive in the digital world.

尽管大多数分析师认为，独立的部分比整体更有价值，但事实可能恰恰相反吗？分开会破坏价值。金融公司Evercore ISI的阿米特?达里亚纳尼指出，协同效应将会消失。苹果可能不再能够提供硬件、软件和服务的紧密集成，而这正是它的主要竞争优势。亚马逊如果被裁掉云计算部门，那么将失去最赚钱的业务，剩下的任何一项投资都将失去吸引力。同样不清楚的是，如果资产剥离削弱了网络效应，市场会作何反应。网络效应是让大公司变大的经济力量，在数字世界中无处不在。

Those who think they can benefit from break-ups ought not to be too hopeful. Political and legal barriers abound. Even if Ms Warren wins next year’s election, the Senate would probably remain under Republican control and might be unwilling to endorse a radical break-up. The other path, through regulatory agencies, seems equally rocky. Ms Warren intends to appoint regulators “committed to reversing illegal and anticompetitive tech mergers”. But they would probably have to make their cases in court. Both federal appeals-court judges and the conservative majority on the Supreme Court are antitrust sceptics.

那些认为自己可以从分裂中获益的人不应该抱太大希望。政治和法律障碍比比皆是。即使沃伦赢得明年的选举，参议院可能仍在共和党控制之下，而且可能不愿支持彻底分裂。另一条途径，通过监管机构，似乎同样困难重重。沃伦打算任命监管机构“致力于扭转非法和反竞争的科技并购”。但他们可能不得不在法庭上提出自己的观点。联邦上诉法院的法官和最高法院的保守派多数派都是反托拉斯的怀疑论者。

Second, practical difficulties will act as a further drag. In other industries “line-ofbusiness” prohibitions, of the sort Ms Warren wants to impose on Amazon and Apple, have been used to avoid abuse of a dominant position. American railways were banned from carrying commodities they produced themselves and banks from engaging in commerce. In the digital world, these borders are more arbitrary and fluid.

第二，实际困难将成为进一步的拖累。在其他行业，沃伦希望对亚马逊和苹果施加的“业务线”禁令，已被用来避免滥用主导地位。美国铁路被禁止运载他们自己生产的商品，银行被禁止从事商业活动。在数字世界中，这些边界更加随意和多变。