2015年经济学人 西班牙与加泰罗尼亚 马斯观察（在线收听）

Spain and Catalonia

Mas observation

Catalonia calls an election, but it will be only one of many in Spain this year

Mas waves the independence flag

CATALAN independence, if it ever happens, has been pushed back at least seven months after the region's president, Artur Mas, decided not to call a snap election but to opt instead for September 27th. The election is still being promoted as a plebiscite on independence, but not in the way Mr Mas once hoped. His original plan for a single list uniting all the separatist parties has been dropped at the insistence of his rivals from the Catalan Republican Left (ERC). 

In last-minute horse-trading, he accepted that ERC would stand separately from his own Convergence and Union (CiU) coalition, in exchange for its support for this year's budget, which his minority government could not pass alone.

That has turned the September poll into one as much about winning power as about independence, with ERC well-placed to oust CiU as the most popular party. The timing is both good and bad for the separatists. It comes just two weeks after Catalonia's national day, on September 11th, which campaigners have turned into a mass event in recent years. But they would still have preferred a February vote, before Catalans are distracted by a flurry of polls right across Spain.

Elections in most other regions and municipalities will be held in May. They will test the staying power of the new upstart left-wing party, Podemos (“We Can”), which leads in several opinion polls, and its local party allies in various one-off groupings. One interesting battle will be in the Catalan capital, Barcelona, where Podemos backs a group called Guanyem (“We Win”). The Barcelona election, with several parties likely to win seats, will be an example of the fractured new politics of Catalonia and Spain: sometimes three parties may be needed for a majority.

Catalonia's independence movement faces further internal spats. Mr Mas and the ERC leader, Oriol Junqueras, want to agree on a common road-map to independence. Mr Junqueras will push for it to be hard-hitting. But some of Mr Mas's allies within CiU want it weakened. If not, the coalition's junior partner, the Democratic Union of Catalonia, may split from Mr Mas's own Catalan Democratic Convergence. And the slim majority for independence found in some polls may go with it.

Spain's prime minister, Mariano Rajoy, is hoping that economic recovery, with growth outstripping most of the rest of Europe, will create enough jobs and goodwill to stop the independence bandwagon. His Popular Party (PP) is also readying itself for a bruising confrontation with Podemos in cities and regions like Madrid and Valencia in May. A big Podemos march in Madrid on January 31st will be a demonstration of the new party's muscle.

The party has its sights firmly set on the general election due in late November, which its leader, Pablo Iglesias, portrays as a battle between Podemos and the PP. Spain's mainstream Socialists, he hopes, will go the way of Greece's ailing Pasok. Mr Iglesias is duly campaigning for the Syriza party in Greece's election. But Podemos also seeks to dilute Catalan separatism by offering an alternative outlet for those frustrated with Mr Rajoy. And unlike Mr Rajoy, who refuses ever to contemplate an independence referendum, Podemos says the issue should be put to a vote.