2016年经济学人 房价飙涨 泡沫为谁而破(下)（在线收听）

There were 4.7 billion square metres of housing under construction but not yet available for sale at the end of last year, up by 25% from the end of 2011; 452 million square metres of housing were on sale, nearly three times as much as at the end of 2011. Some provinces and cities are drafting plans to convert unsold homes into subsidised housing for poorer residents. Xi Jinping, China’s president, has said that reducing property inventory is a “battle of annihilation” that must be won to revitalise the economy. Revived demand for new construction, in short, is a long way off.

去年年末，有47亿平方米的在建楼房都没有开放销售，从2011年年末算起增长了25%；4.52亿平方米的房屋都在出售，数量将近是2011年年末的3倍。一些省份和城市在起草计划，打算将未售房屋变成穷困居民的补助房。习主席提到，减少房地产库存是一场必须要打赢的经济复兴的“歼灭战”。要复兴对建筑行业的蓬勃需求还有一段很长的路要走。

The exception is sure to be China’s biggest cities, where there clearly is an imbalance between supply and demand. Shenzhen and Shanghai, in particular, are popular with the young and the highly educated, just the kinds of people that push up housing prices. They are two of China’s best-run cities, offering good transport links, good jobs and, by Chinese standards, good air. Unsold housing inventories cover just about five months of demand at the current pace of sales, indicating that more construction is needed.

中国的大城市显然是个例外，那里房地产供应与需求显然不平衡。尤其是深圳与上海，颇受具有高等学历的年轻人欢迎，他们也正是那些推动房价上涨的人。作为中国两大发展最好的城市，上海和深圳能提供便利的交通，较好的工作环境，还有依据中国标准所谓的优质空气。以当前房地产销售速率，未出售的楼房库存仅能满足五个月的需求。这表明我们需要更多地建造楼房。