2016年经济学人 中国的消费大军 依旧活跃(中)（在线收听）

JD, its main local rival, saw revenues leap by nearly 58%.

京东作为阿里巴巴主要的竞争对手，它的年收入增长也有将近58%。

Chinese are still spending heavily abroad.

中国人依旧有较高的境外支出。

Their international tax-free shopping shot up 58% last year, according to a new report from Global Blue, a big operator of duty-free shops.

据环球蓝联新公布的一份报告显示，在2015年，国际免税购物额激增58%（环球蓝联是一家较大的免税店运营商）。

Overall, Chinese tourists spent 215 billion on outbound travel last year, a rise of 53% on the previous year.

总体来说，在去年，中国游客的境外旅游支出达2150亿美元，同比增长53%。

Ctrip, a big online travel firm partly owned by Baidu, a Chinese internet search giant, saw its revenues jump by nearly half last year, to 10.9 billion yuan.

携程一家线上旅游公司，其股东之一是百度（中国的搜索引擎巨头），其年收入为109亿人民币，同比增加近一半之多。

As with cars, screens and travel, so with consumption generally.

消费跟汽车、荧屏以及旅游是一样的。

All retail sales across the economy, adjusted for inflation, rose by 9.6% during the first quarter, compared with the same period a year ago.

与去年同期相比，今年第一季度的零售销售额增长率为9.6%（排除通货膨胀因素的影响）。

The services sector, which caters to the growing demands of the middle class, has been rising by 8% a year in real terms since 2012.

服务业满足中产阶级日益增长的需求，从2012年开始，其销售额就已经增加了8%。

Services made up 57% of economic output in the first quarter; electricity consumption in services rose by some 10%, but was as flat for industry.

在第一季度，服务输出占经济总输出的57%；服务业用电量增长近10%， 但是工业用电量呈现平稳趋势。

Not every market is as bouncy as it once was.

并非所有市场都能一如既往地充满活力。

A cooling economy and an official anti-corruption drive have squeezed luxury goods, sales of which fell by 2% year on year in 2015, to 113 billion yuan.

经济趋冷以及国家反腐行动已对奢侈品造成压力，其2016年年销售额为1130亿人民币，同比下降了2%。

But some firms are doing well.

但有些公司表现得不错。

Remy Cointreau, a premium liquor brand offering tamper-proof bottles on the mainland (near field communications tags tell your smartphone if the booze has been diluted), saw global revenues rise by nearly 10% last quarter and credited improving trends in greater China.

人头马君度—一个高档烈性酒品牌，它向中国大陆提供一种NFC酒瓶（近场通讯技术标识会使得智能手机得以分辨出该酒是否已被稀释），其2015年第四季度收入增长近10%，并被誉为大中华地区日益盛行的潮流。

According to Bernard Arnault, the boss of LVMH, a luxury goliath: Analysts underestimate the Chinese economy… the fundamentals are good. Household spending is still increasing.

奢侈品巨头路易?威登集团的老板贝尔纳?阿尔诺说道：分析员们低估了中国经济……基本情况是好的。家庭支出仍在增加。

The two Chinas

两个中国

Can consumption remain resilient given the troubles of the country's state-dominated industrial economy, ranging from vast overcapacity to record levels of debt?

考虑到这个国家国企主导的工业经济陷于困难之中，具体表现在生产能力过剩和负债达到新高，这个国家的消费还能保持弹性吗？

One temporary source of comfort is the fact that the state sector may now itself be stabilising, thanks to a massive, debt-fuelled government stimulus.

但比较令人宽慰的是，国有部门现在正稳定下来，这要归功于政府大规模的债务刺激。

But greater reassurance comes from the fact that even a big shakeout in heavy industry would be unlikely to derail the Chinese consumer.

即使重工业严重跌落也不会使中国消费脱轨失控，这才是最大的信心来源。

By one estimate, if 30% of capacity is slashed across China's most bloated state industries, perhaps 3m workers will lose their jobs over the next three years.

根据一项评估，如果中国那些过度膨胀的国有工业30%的生产力被削减，那么在未来三年里将会有三百万的工人失业。

But thanks largely to the private sector, the country created 64m jobs between 2011 and 2015, with more than 13m emerging in the past year alone.

幸好私营企业在2011年至2015年期间为中国创造了六千四百万的工作岗位，仅去年一年就增加了一千三百万。