2019年经济学人 全球贸易:世界末日(1)（在线收听）

"Winter is coming," warned a Norwegian representative on November 22nd, at a meeting of the World Trade Organisation (WTO).

“寒冬要来了，”11月22日一名挪威代表在世界贸易组织（WTO）的一次会上表示。

The multilateral trading system that the WTO has overseen since 1995 is about to freeze up.

自1995年起受WTO监督的多边贸易体系即将冻结。

On December 10th two of the judges on its appellate body,

12月10日，其上诉机构的两名法官将退休，

which hears appeals in trade disputes and authorises sanctions against rule-breakers, will retire

该机构负责审理贸易争端中的上诉，并授权对违反规则者进行制裁，

—and an American block on new appointments means they will not be replaced.

—美国对新任命的阻挠意味着他们不会被取代。

With just one judge remaining, it will no longer be able to hear new cases.

由于只剩下一名法官，该机构将无法再审理新案件。

The WTO underpins 96% of global trade. By one recent estimate, membership of the WTO or General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT),

WTO支撑着96%的全球贸易。根据最近的一项估计，WTO或其前身关税及贸易总协定（GATT）的成员国身份

its predecessor, has boosted trade among members by 171%.

促使成员国之间的贸易增长171%。

When iPhones move from China to America, or bottles of Scotch whisky from the European Union to India,

当iPhone手机从中国转移到美国，或者是苏格兰威士忌从欧盟转移到印度时，

it is the WTO's rules that keep tariff and non-tariff barriers low and give companies the certainty they need to plan and invest.

是WTO的规则使关税和非关税壁垒保持在较低水平，并使企业在规划和投资方面有了确定性。

The system is supposed to be self-reinforcing. Mostly, countries follow the WTO's rules.

这个体系本应自我强化。多数情况下，成员国也遵守着WTO的规则。

But if one feels another has transgressed, then instead of starting a one-on-one trade spat it can file a formal dispute.

但如果一方觉得另一方违反了协议，那么它可以提起正式纷争，而不是挑起一对一的贸易争端。

If the WTO's ruling displeases either party, it can appeal. The appellate body's judgments pack a punch.

如果WTO的裁决让任一方感到不满，那么该方可以上诉。上诉机构的判决非常有效力。

If the loser fails to bring its trade rules into compliance, the winner can impose tariffs up to the amount the judges think the rule-breaking cost it.

如果败诉的一方未能遵守其贸易规则， 那么胜诉的一方可以征收关税，最高可以达到法官认为违规造成的损失。

It is that punishment that deters rule breaking in the first place.

正是这种惩罚在一开始就阻止了违规行为。

It is no surprise that President Donald Trump has axed these foreign arbiters, given his general distaste for internationally agreed rules.

考虑到唐纳德·特朗普总统对国际协议规则的反感，他砍掉这些外国法官也就不意外了。

On November 12th he declared himself "very tentative" on the WTO. But the problems run far deeper than dislike of multilateral institutions.

11月12日，他宣称自己对WTO“非常犹豫”。但问题远不止是对多边机构厌恶。

They stem from a breakdown in trust over the way international law should work, and the more general failure of the WTO's negotiating arm.

它们源于对国际法运作方式信任的破裂，以及WTO谈判机构更普遍的失败。

Had the Americans felt that they could negotiate away their grievances, resentment towards the appellate body might not have built up.

如果美国人觉得他们可以通过谈判来解决他们的不满，那么他们对上诉机构的怨恨可能就不会形成。

But with so many members reluctant to liberalise, including smaller countries fearful of opening up to China, that has been impossible.

但由于许多成员国不愿自由化，包括害怕向中国开放的小国，所以这是不可能的。