美国国家公共电台 NPR 中美达成第一阶段贸易协议（在线收听）

A year and a half after launching a costly trade war with China, President Trump is calling a truce. Both the White House and Chinese officials say they've reached a phase one trade agreement. Details are sketchy, but the deal includes some tariff relief in exchange for more farm purchases and other unspecified reforms.

NPR's Scott Horsley reports.

SCOTT HORSLEY, BYLINE: President Trump was in salesman mode this morning. Speaking to reporters in the Oval Office, Trump cast the trade agreement in historic terms.

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PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP: It's going to ultimately lead to the opening of China, which is something that is incredible because that's a whole, big, untapped market of 1.5 billion people.

HORSLEY: The deal announcement comes just two days before the administration was scheduled to slap new tariffs on another $160 billion worth of Chinese imports, including popular consumer items such as cell phones and children's toys. Asia economic expert Matthew Goodman, who's with the Center for Strategic and International Studies, says suspending those tariffs will bring a sigh of relief to a lot of business owners.

MATTHEW GOODMAN: It's good that the uncertainty has been lifted somewhat, at least for now, and that the tariffs that were supposed to go into effect this week and are not going to go into effect. So American consumers aren't going to face increased iPhone costs.

HORSLEY: The agreement also cuts in half the tariffs that have been leveled since September on another $120 billion worth of Chinese imports, including a lot of clothing and sporting goods. David French of the National Retail Federation calls that a significant step in the right direction, but he hopes it's not the last step. French notes a lot of other costly tariffs are still in place.

DAVID FRENCH: We would like to see an end to the trade war. The trade war has hurt U.S. exporters. It's hurt U.S. farmers. It's hurt U.S. consumers. And it's hurt U.S. retailers.

HORSLEY: Farmers in particular have been caught in the crossfire. When the Trump administration launched its trade war, China retaliated by sharply cutting its purchases of U.S. farm goods. Farm exports to China plunged from $19 billion in 2017 to about $9 billion the following year. The U.S. government has made up some of that difference with farm subsidies. With today's agreement, Trump says China's promised to buy a lot more American pork and soybeans.

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TRUMP: I think in agriculture, they will hit $50 billion, yes.

UNIDENTIFIED REPORTER: Next year, or when? What's...

TRUMP: Pretty soon. They've already stepped it up.

HORSLEY: Chinese officials didn't put a dollar figure on their commitment. Fifty billion dollars in annual purchases would be nearly twice as much as China's ever bought from U.S. farmers and would represent more than a third of America's total farm exports. Matthew Goodman is skeptical.

GOODMAN: I'm not sure we're capable of producing that many soybeans and other products in the time allotted.

HORSLEY: Still, boosting China's farm purchases is the easy part of this deal. After all, the country does have a lot of mouths to feed. More challenging is getting China to make structural reforms, like scaling back subsidies for its state-owned businesses and stop forcing American companies to share their technology as a price of operating in China.

Goodman says Trump deserves credit for shining a spotlight on those issues. But after a year and a half of trade uncertainty and tens of billions of dollars in tariffs, Goodman calls this deal a pale shadow of what the White House initially hoped for.

GOODMAN: If the reports are accurate about what's in this deal, I think we spent a lot for very little. It's hard to feel that this really was worth it in that sense.

HORSLEY: The administration says China has committed to protecting intellectual property and halting forced technology transfers. But so far, it's offered no details. A written text of the agreement is expected in a few weeks, in time for a signing ceremony in early January.

Scott Horsley, NPR News, Washington.

在对中国发起代价高昂的贸易战一年半之后，特朗普总统决定休战。白宫和中国官员都表示，双方已达成第一阶段贸易协议文本。虽然详细情况还未公布，但协议包括用减免关税换取更多农产品购买和其他未说明的改革。

NPR新闻的斯科特·霍斯利将带来详细报道。

斯科特·霍斯利连线：今天早上，特朗普总统开启推销员模式。在总统办公室接受记者采访时，特朗普称这一贸易协议具历史性意义。

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唐纳德·特朗普总统：这将最终导致中国的开放，这是非常不可思议的事情，因为那是有15亿人参与、完整庞大且未被发掘的市场。

霍斯利：这一协议声明宣布时，距离特朗普政府原计划对价值1600亿美元中国进口产品加征关税的时间仅剩两天，关税涉及手机和儿童玩具等备受欢迎的消费品。美国战略与国际研究中心的亚洲经济专家马修·古德曼表示，暂停加征关税将使许多企业主如释重负。

马修·古德曼：至少目前来看，不确定性多少得到缓解，这点很好，原定本周生效的新关税不会实施。美国消费者不会面临iPhone价格上涨的情况了。

霍斯利：这一协议还将9月生效的关税减半，该关税涉及价值1200亿美元的中国进口产品，包括衣服和体育用品。美国零售联合会的大卫·弗伦奇称这是向正确方向迈出的重要一步，他希望这不会是最后一步。弗伦奇指出，还有很多引发困难的关税仍在实施。

大卫·弗伦奇：我们希望看到贸易战结束。这场贸易战令美国出口商陷入了困境。同时也伤害了美国农民、美国消费者，还有美国零售商。

霍斯利：农民在这场战争中的损失尤为严重。特朗普政府发动贸易战后，中国用大幅削减美国农产品采购来进行反击。美国对华农产品出口额从2017年的1900亿美元暴跌至2018年的900亿美元。美国政府用农业补贴弥补了部分差额。特朗普表示，依据今天的协议，中国承诺增加购买美国猪肉和大豆。

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特朗普：我认为农业的采购规模将达到500亿美元。

身份不明的记者：是明年还是何时？

特朗普：很快。他们已经加大采购力度了。

霍斯利：中国官员并未就采购规模给出具体数字。500亿美元的年采购规模相当于中国采购美国农产品金额的近两倍，这一数字在美国农产品总出口额的占比将超过三分之一。马修·古德曼对此表示怀疑。

古德曼：我不确定我们能否在规定时间内生产这么多的大豆和其他产品。

霍斯利：不过，加大中国的农产品采购力度是这项协议中容易的部分。毕竟，中国有许多人口要养活。更大的挑战在于让中国进行结构性改革，比如削减国有企业的补贴，同时停止让美国企业用技术分享来换取在中国的经营。

古德曼表示，特朗普关注这些问题的做法值得称赞。但是由于贸易不确定性持续了一年半之久，而且增加了数百亿美元关税，古德曼称这项协议使白宫最初的希望变得黯然失色。

古德曼：如果媒体对协议内容进行的报道是准确的，我认为我们是付出得多而得到的少。从这个意义上说，很难感觉到这真的值得。

霍斯利：特朗普政府表示，中国承诺保护知识产权并停止强制技术转让。但目前并没有具体信息披露。这项协议的书面文本将于未来几周确定，随后在1月初举行签字仪式。

NPR新闻，斯科特·霍斯利华盛顿报道。