2020年经济学人石油市场: 犹豫不决(1)（打印版）

It has been a difficult time for anyone betting on oil. Climate change threatens long-term demand.

对那些押注石油的人而言，这是一段艰难的时期。气候变化威胁着长期需求。

In the past year ample production, trade disputes and fears of an economic downturn have weighed on the price of crude.

在过去一年里，充足的产量、贸易争端以及对经济衰退的恐惧给原油价格带来重压。

On December 3rd Brent crude fell to $61 per barrel—18% below its April high.

12月3日，布伦特原油价格低至每桶61美元—比4月份的高点低了18%。

Yet by mid-December forces were aligning to support oil prices again.

但到12月中旬，各方力量再次联手支持石油价格。

The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies agreed on December 6th to lower output by more than 2.1m barrels a day.

12月6日，石油输出国组织（OPEC）及其盟国同意将日产石油量减少210万桶以上。

Adding to the optimism, Saudi Aramco, the world's biggest oil company, listed 1.5% of its shares.

世界最大石油公司阿拉伯-美国石油公司出售1.5%的公司股份，增加了石油市场乐观情绪。

On December 12th its market value surpassed an astonishing $2trn.

12月12日，该公司市值超过2万亿美元。

And on December 13th President Donald Trump announced a preliminary trade agreement with China.

12月13日，唐纳德·特朗普总统宣布和中国达成初步贸易协议。

That bumped oil prices higher. As The Economist went to press on December 18th, Brent crude had risen to $65.74.

石油价格再次推高。12月18日，本刊付印时，布伦特原油价格已升至65.74美元。

Even so, oil gamblers are wrestling with two big uncertainties. The first concerns America's output.

即便如此，石油赌客们正面临两大不确定性。第一个担忧是美国的石油产量。

The country pumped 17.8m barrels a day in November, compared with an average of 15.5m in 2018.

相较2018年平均1550万桶的日产量，今年美国11月的石油日产量为1780万桶。

But investors have grown impatient with frackers' meagre profits.

但投资者已经对石油公司的微薄利润失去了耐心。

The cost of capital for American exploration and production companies has jumped by about 50% since mid-2016, according to Goldman Sachs.

根据高盛集团的数据，自2016年中期以来，美国勘探与生产公司的资本成本已上升了约50%。

At the start of December 663 rigs were operating in America, about a quarter fewer than a year earlier.

12月初，美国有663个钻井平台在作业，比一年前减少了四分之一。

America's oil output will not shrink in 2020, but its growth may slow. The question is when, and by how much.

2020年，美国石油产量不会缩水，但其增长可能会放缓。问题是时间和金额。

The second uncertainty concerns whether the members of OPEC's 23-country expanded alliance will stick to their new deal.

第二个不确定涉及OPEC扩大后的23个成员国是否会坚持他们的新协议。