2020年经济学人 石油市场: 犹豫不决(2)（在线收听）

The past 12 months give reason for scepticism. In December 2018 OPEC and its partners agreed to reduce output by 1.2m barrels a day.

过去12个月的种种给了我们怀疑的理由。2018年12月，OPEC及其合作伙伴同意将日产量削减120万桶。

Iraq, Nigeria and Russia, among others, have regularly exceeded their allowed limits.

其中伊拉克、尼日利亚和俄罗斯经常超过他们允许的限额。

To compensate, Saudi Arabia, OPEC's most powerful member,

根据国际能源署数据，作为补偿，

slashed its own production by an average of 500,000 additional barrels a day, according to the International Energy Agency.

OPEC最主要成员国沙特阿拉伯将自己的日产量平均产量额外削减了50万桶。

Analysts at Morgan Stanley estimate that in 2020 1.8m additional barrels a day will be pumped in countries outside the OPEC alliance,

根据摩根士丹利分析师估计，到2020年，OPEC联盟以外的国家每天将增产180万桶

including Brazil, Guyana and Norway. In the run-up to OPEC's meeting in Vienna in December,

其中包括巴西、圭亚那和挪威。在OPEC12月维也纳会议前夕，

it was doubtful whether the group would sustain the cuts agreed to a year earlier, let alone go further.

该组织是否将维持一年前达成的减产协议都值得怀疑，更不用说进一步减产了。

In the end Saudi Arabia's new oil minister, Abdulaziz bin Salman, wrangled an impressive deal.

最终，沙特阿拉伯新任能源部长Abdulaziz Bin Salman达成了一项令人印象深刻的协议。

The alliance's 1.2m-barrel cut will extend to 1.7m in January.

该联盟的120万桶减产量将在明年1月扩大至170万桶。

Additional reductions led by Saudi Arabia will push the total to 2.1m barrels a day.

以沙特为首的额外减产将使日产总量达到210万桶。

The broader group's collective output will be 1.3% below its level in November.

更广泛组织的整体产量较11月份下降1.3%。

It remains to be seen, however, if the cuts will materialise—or last. The new agreement covers only the first quarter of 2020.

然而，减产是否会兑现，或持续，仍有待观察。新协议只涵盖2020年第一季度。

It also allows Russia to increase its output of condensate, a type of light crude.

该协议还允许俄罗斯增加凝析油（一种轻质原油）的产量。

Saudi Arabia remains keen to support prices, both for its budget and to make Aramco's listing a success.

沙特阿拉伯仍然热衷于支撑油价，既为了预算，也为了让阿拉伯-美国石油公司的上市获得成功。

The firm's soaring valuation in early trading may not be sustainable.

该公司在早期交易中飙升的估值可能无法维系。

Many big global investors were repelled by its low dividend yield, security risks and state control.

很多全球大型投资者对其低股息收益率、安全风险和政府控制感到反感。

But local retail investors piled in, attracted partly by the sweetener of an extra free share for every ten they buy and hold for six months.

但当地小额投资者蜂拥而至，部分原因是他们每购买10股并持有6个月，就可以获得额外的免费股票。

If Saudi Arabia's allies fail to stick to their promised cuts, the kingdom will have a choice: slash its own production further or let prices fall. Neither is appealing.

如果沙特的盟友没能坚持减产承诺，那么该国将面临一个选择：要么进一步削减产量，要么让价格下跌。两者都没什么吸引力。