2018年经济学人 美国经济:特朗普的繁荣能持久吗?(1)（在线收听）

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The American economy: Can the Trump boom last?

美国经济：特朗普的繁荣能持久吗？

America's president is not the architect of American strength. But in the short term, things will go his way.

特朗普不是美国增长的造就者。但是，短期内，事态是被限定在走他的路上面的。

There is often more fakery than truth in a tweet from President Donald Trump.

特朗普的推文中经常是假的多于真的。

But on one subject he is broadly right.

但是，在一个问题上，他总的来说是对的。

America's economy is in good shape.

美国经济事态良好。

Business confidence is high.

商业信心高亢。

Jobs are plentiful.

就业岗位充裕。

Last month non-farm companies added 228,000 workers to their payrolls.

上个月，非农公司给它们的工资单上增加了228000名工人。

The unemployment rate is 4.1%, the lowest figure for more than a decade.

失业率是4.1%，为十多年来的最低数字。

The availability of jobs is drawing more of the working-age population into the labour force.

工作之可得正在吸引越来越多的劳动适龄人口加入劳动大军。

Wages are growing in real terms with some of the biggest gains going to low-paid workers.

按照实际水平计算，工资正在增长，其中最大的所得流向了低工资工人。

Mr Trump over-eggs things, of course.

特朗普当然是要反复吹嘘啦。

He claims each good jobs report and each new peak in the S&P 500 as his own achievement.

他声称，每一份靓丽的就业报告和标普500的每一次新高都是他的功劳。

In fact, he was lucky in his inheritance.

事实上，在遗产方面，他是幸运的。

The market has risen by 25% since his election, but is up by 195% since 2009.

自他当选以来，市场上涨了25%，但是自2009年以来上涨了195%。

The unemployment rate fell from a peak of 10% to 4.7% under Barack Obama and then to 4.1% on Mr Trump's watch.

在奥巴马治下，失业率从高峰时的10%降到了4.7%。之后，在特朗普监护中，又降到了4.1%。

His administration says that a mix of deregulation and corporate-tax cuts will spur sustained GDP growth of 3%, well above the 2% average of recent years.

他的政府表示，去监管和消减企业税的结合将激发出持续的3%的GDP增长，远远高于这几年2%的平均水平。

As the economy approaches full employment, an astonishing pickup in productivity would be needed to accomplish that.

随着经济接近完全就业，为了实现这一目标，生产力方面某种令人吃惊的改善是事所必需的了。

But Trump-bashers overstate their case, too.

但是，特朗普的批评者也是言过其实了。

They dismiss the optimism of consumers and bosses as sentiment, not substance.

他们不把消费者和雇主的乐观当回事，认为那不过是一种情绪而已，并非是实实在在的。

They warn that the stockmarket is dangerously overvalued and that America's expansion, which is in its 102nd month, must soon falter.

他们警告说，股市被危险地高估了，正处于第102个月之中的美国扩张不久必将举步维艰。