2018年经济学人 沙特改革大幕已开启(2)（在线收听）

Yet the world has a vital interest in Saudi Arabia's fate.

但是沙特阿拉伯的命运和全球的重要利益攸关。

It is the biggest oil exporter, and home to Islam's two holiest sites.

沙特阿拉伯是最大的石油出口国，也是伊斯兰教两大圣地所在地。

It is central to the Gulf, the Arab region and the Islamic world.

还是海湾地区、阿拉伯地区和伊斯兰世界的中心。

Successful reforms would help spread stability to a region in chaos, and dynamism to its economies.

成功的改革将有助于稳定处于混乱的地区，为其经济注入活力。

A more normal Saudi Arabia should moderate the Islamic world,

一个更正常的沙特阿拉伯应该缓和伊斯兰世界，

by example and because the flow of petro dollars to zealots would slow.

举例说明原因就是购买石油的美元流向狂热分子的速度会减慢。

Failure, by contrast, could spread turmoil to the Gulf,

相比之下，如果失败，动荡可能会蔓延至海湾地区，

which broadly avoided the upheaval of the Arab spring of 2011.

而该地区基本避免了2011年“阿拉伯之春”运动的影响。

It is thus worrying that Saudi Arabia faces such daunting problems.

因此，令人担忧的是，沙特阿拉伯面临着这些严峻的问题。

Volatile oil revenues make up more than 80% of government income, the IMF reckons.

国际货币基金组织估计，不稳定的石油收入占沙特政府收入的80%以上。

Even with rising crude prices, the country is grappling with a large budget deficit.

尽管原油价格不断上涨，但是沙特仍面临着巨额预算赤字。

Forall the gains in health and education, GDP per person has been flat for decades.

尽管在医疗和教育方面取得进步，但是人均GDP几十年来一直保持原状。

Saudis work mostly in cushy government jobs.

大部分沙特人主要在政府干一些轻松的工作。

Oil wealth has hidden a woefully unproductive economy,

石油财富掩盖了极其低效的经济，

and fuelled Islamic ultra-puritanism around the world.

并在世界各地助长了伊斯兰极端清教主义。

To his credit, Prince Muhammad recognises that change is needed.

值得称道的是，王储穆罕默德认识到变革是必要的。

However, he is unnecessarily adding to his task.

然而，他给自己增加了不必要的任务。

Abroad, he has proved rash.

在国外，王储穆罕默德已被证明是鲁莽的。

His war against the Houthis, a Shiamilitia in Yemen,

与也门什叶派胡塞武装组织的战争，

now centred on the battle for the port of Hodeida, has brought disease and hunger to Yemenis,

现在集中在荷台达港的战斗，给也门人带来了疾病和饥饿，

a missilewar over Saudi cities and embarrassment to Western allies that provide weapons and other help.

给沙特城市带来了导弹战争，也让为其提供武器和其他帮助的西方盟友处于一个尴尬的境地。

Last year Saudi Arabia sullied itself by detaining the Lebanese prime minister, SaadHariri,

去年，沙特阿拉伯扣押黎巴嫩总理萨阿德·哈里里，从而玷污了自己的名声，

releasing him only under international pressure.

最后迫于国际压力才将其释放。

With its main ally, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), it has led the way in isolating Qatar, a contrarian emirate,

沙特还与主要盟友阿拉伯联合酋长国一道，带头孤立与其持相反观点的酋长国卡塔尔，

by cutting land, sea and air links (the Saudis even want to dig a canal to make the place an island).

主要通过切断陆地、海洋和空中运输的方式，（沙特人甚至想开凿一条运河，把这个地方变成一个岛屿）。

In doing so they have split the Gulf Co-operation Council, the club of oil monarchies.

通过这样做，他们分裂了海湾合作委员会——石油君主国俱乐部。

As the Arab cold war spreads, Iran and other foes are gaining advantage.

而随着阿拉伯冷战的蔓延，伊朗和其他敌对国家正逐渐取得上风。

At home Prince Muhammad has developed a taste for repression.

在国内，王储穆罕默德已经养成了镇压的习惯。

The number of executions has risen.

处以死刑的人数增加了。

More dissenters are in jail, among them, perversely, women who campaigned to drive.

越来越多的持不同意见的人被关进监狱，其中有些人是参与争取驾驶权运动的女性。

Everything, it seems, must be a gift from the Al Sauds:

一切似乎都必须是来自阿尔沙特的馈赠：

the name of the country, the oil bounty and now the right to drive a car.

从国家的名字到丰富的石油，现在则是驾车权。

He has also adopted the view that all Islamists,even the non-violent off shoots of the Muslim Brotherhood,

王储穆罕默德还采纳了这样的观点：所有的伊斯兰主义者，甚至是穆斯林兄弟会的非暴力分支，

are as grave a menace as Sunni jihadists and Shia militias. 

都和逊尼派圣战分子和什叶派民兵一样，构成严重的威胁。

Thus, the Saudis and Emiratis are leading a counter-revolution against the Arab spring and the hope of democracy.

因此，沙特和阿联酋正在领导一场反对阿拉伯之春和民主希望的反革命。

Sadly, America has all but given them carte blanche.

可悲的是，美国几乎给了他们自主处理权。