2018年经济学人 土耳其:遏制埃尔多安独裁正当其时(2)（在线收听）

The vicious attempted coup of July 2016 deserved to fail.

2016年7月的恶性未遂政变理应失败。

But Mr Erdogan’s revenge has been indiscriminate and disproportionate.

但是埃尔多安先生报复是不分青红皂白、不成比例的。

Some 110,000 people have lost their jobs in the army, schools and the bureaucracy;

大约11万人失去了在军队、学校和政府的工作，

more than 50,000 people were arrested, of whom 35,000 have been convicted.

超过5万人被捕，其中3.5万人被判有罪。

Taking advantage of a climate of fear and a state of emergency,

埃尔多安先生利用恐惧的气氛和情况的紧急，

Mr Erdogan pushed through a constitutional reform that turns Turkey from a parliamentary to a presidential system,

通过宪法改革将土耳其从议会变成总统制，

greatly reducing the power of the legislature to check a now-mighty president, ie, himself.

极大地削弱了立法机关的权力，而立法机关是用来制衡现在强大的总统的，即，埃尔多安本人。

These changes were approved by a close referendum in 2017, amid credible allegations of cheating.

2017年，这些改革全民公投通过，而这次公投遭到了可信的作弊指控。

For all these reasons, Mr Erdogan should go.

出于以上所有原因，埃尔多安应该下台。

Who should replace him is less obvious.

但谁应该取代他就不那么明朗了。

Of the alternatives, Selahattin Demirtas, the leader of the HDP, the main Kurdish party, is impressive but has no chance of winning，

在有可能取代他的候选人中，库尔德人的主要政党人民民主党领导人塞拉赫丁·德米尔塔什，印象深刻但没有获胜的机会，

not just because he is a Kurd in a country that mistrusts them,

不仅仅是因为他处在一个不信任库尔德人的国家里，

but also because he is campaigning from behind bars, having been jailed on trumped-up terrorism charges.

还因为他正在监狱里进行竞选活动，他因之前捏造恐怖主义而被指控入狱。

On balance, Muharrem Ince, a former teacher who now represents Kemal Ataturk’s old party, the CHP, is the best option.

总的来说，穆哈雷姆·因斯是最合适的选择，他以前是老师，现在代表凯末尔的旧政党，即共和人民党。

Despite the CHP’s statist instincts, Mr Inceis a strong-minded and decent candidate.

尽管共和人民党有中央集权的倾向，但因斯先生是一位意志坚强、正派得体的候选人。

He has made a point of visiting Mr Demirtas in prison; as the child of observant Muslims, he could win over some AK voters.

他特意拜访了狱中的德米尔塔什先生；作为虔诚的穆斯林的后代，他能够赢得一些正义与发展党选民的支持。

Polls suggest that Mr Ince will find it hard to win even if he can force Mr Erdogan into a run-off on July 8th.

民意调查显示，因斯先生即使能和埃尔多安先生进入7月8日的决选，也很难赢得选举。

That makes the parliamentary ballot especially important.

这使得议会选举尤为重要。

There is a good chance that AK (and a smaller ally) will lose its majority.

好机会是正义与发展党(以及一个较小的盟友)很有可能失去多数席位。

For that to happen, though, the HDP will have to clear a 10% thresh old or it will get no seats at all.

不过，为了实现这一目标，人民民主党必须清除10%的旧票，否则将得不到任何席位。

Voters should opt for it wherever they can.

选民应该尽可能地选择因斯先生。

Even if Mr Erdogan wins re-election, an opposition controlled chamber will be able to speak out against his abuses,

即使埃尔多安赢得连任，由反对党控制的议院将能够公开反对埃尔多安权力滥用、

block his decrees and perhaps reverse his constitutional changes.

对其法令颁布形成一定阻碍，或许还可以逆转他的宪法改革。

Any checks and balances are better than none.

为了阻止苏丹埃尔多安，土耳其需要一个有效的反对党。

To stop the sultan, Turkey needs an effective opposition.

任何审查和制衡都比没有强。