2018年经济学人 世界经济:特朗普别“撞车”(2)（在线收听）

The trade war is the biggest threat to global growth.

贸易战是全球经济发展最大的威胁。

On June 15th the White House confirmed that a 25% tariff on up to $50bn of Chinese imports would soon go into effect.

美国对高达500亿美元的中国进口商品征收25%的关税，6月15日，白宫证实这一举措将很快生效。

Three days later, after China promised to retaliate,

三天后，在中国放言会进行经济报复后，

the president expanded, by as much as $400bn, the other goods America is threatening to tax.

特朗普将其他威胁要增税的商品又增加了4000亿美元的税。

If he follows through, nine-tenths of roughly $500bn-worth of goods imported from China each year will face American levies.

如果特朗普坚持下去，那么每年从中国进口的价值约5000亿美元的商品中，有90%将面临美国的征税。

Meanwhile, the European Union is poised to impose retaliatory tariffs in response to America's action against EU steel and aluminium.

与此同时，欧盟准备对美国征收报复性关税，以应对美国对欧盟的钢铁和铝征收关税。

No wonder markets have caught the jitters.

难怪市场惴惴不安。

The president is unafraid of escalating trade disputes because he believes he has a winning hand.

特朗普不怕贸易争端不断，因为他认为自己一定会赢。

America buys from China almost four times as much as it sells there, limiting China's ability to match tariffs.

美国从中国进口的商品几乎是出口中国的四倍，这限制了中国在关税方面与之抗衡的能力。

The White House hopes this imbalance will lead China to yield to its demands,

美国政府希望这种不平衡会让中国屈服于它的要求，

some of which (cutting the theft of American firms'intellectual property) are more reasonable than others (shrinking the bilateral trade deficit).

某些要求(减少美国公司的知识产权被盗)比其他要求(减少双边贸易赤字)更为合理。

But Mr Trump overestimates his bargaining power.

但特朗普高估了他的议价能力。

If China runs out of American goods to tax, it could raise existing tariffs higher.

如果中国对所有的美国商品征税，就可以将关税提到更高。

Or it could harass American firms operating in China.

抑或对在中国运营的美国公司造成困扰。

More important, the president's mercantilism blinds him to the damage he could inflict on America.

更重要的是，特朗普的重商主义让他看不到对美国经济造成的伤害。

He thinks it is better not to trade at all than to run a trade deficit.

特朗普认为完全不进行贸易往来比因贸易造成的赤字要好。

This folly also dictates his tactics towards Canada, Mexico and the EU.

这种愚蠢也让他对加拿大、墨西哥和欧盟采取了关税政策。

Mr Trump could yet withdraw from the North American Free-Trade Agreement and slap tariffs on cars.

特朗普可能仍会退出《北美自由贸易协定》,并对汽车强征关税。

The problem is not that America depends on trade.

问题不在于美国依赖贸易。

In fact, it is a big enough free-trade area for the eventual damage to GDP, even from a fully fledged trade war,

事实上，这是一个足够大的自由贸易区，对于最终国内生产总值的损害来讲，即使是一场全面的贸易战，

to be limited to a few percentage points (smaller, specialised economies are more dependent on trade and would suffer a lot more).

损失也会限制在几个百分点以内(较小的、专业化的经济体更依赖于贸易，会遭受更大的损失)。

Such self-in-flicted harm would impose a pointless cost on the average American household of perhaps thousands of dollars.

美国这种自损八百的行为会造成毫无意义的代价，平均到每个美国普通家庭，就是每家损失几千美元。

That would be bad, but it would hardly be fatal.

情况很糟糕，但是决不至于致命。