2018年经济学人 奥夫拉多尔当选墨西哥总统是福是祸?(1)（在线收听）

Andrés Manuel López Obrador

安德烈斯·曼努埃尔·洛佩斯·奥夫拉多尔

Mexico's answer to Donald Trump

墨西哥对唐纳德·特朗普的回应

There are many reasons to worry about Mexico's most likely next president

对于墨西哥最有可能当选下届总统的候选人，有许多值得担心的理由。

These days Mexicans agree on two things.

近期，墨西哥人在两件事上达成了一致。

Their football team's victory over Germanyon June 17th was magnificent.

第一件事是6月17日足球赛，墨西哥队大胜德国队对于墨西哥来说意义非凡。

And the elections on July 1st will be the most important in decades.

第二件事是7月1日的总统大选将是几十年里最重要的一次选举。

The front-runner for the presidency, Andrés Manuel López Obrador,

总统大选领跑者安德烈斯·曼努埃尔·洛佩斯·奥夫拉多尔，

leads a coalition called "Juntos haremos historia" ("Together we will make history").

领导着一个名为“Juntos haremos histora”(“我们将共同创造历史”)的联盟。

His opponents fear that he will achieve just that, in a bad way.

其反对者担心他会以一种不好的方式实现这个目标。

Mr López Obrador, who has run for the presidency twice before, has a folksy air of incorruptibility that enchants many Mexicans.

洛佩斯·奥夫拉多尔曾两次竞选总统，许多墨西哥人拜服于他平易近人、刚正廉洁的风采。

He promises a "radical revolution".

他承诺会发起一场“激进的革命”。

Some hear that as a threat.

有人将此视作威胁。

Mr López Obrador has at times opposed the measures earlier governments have taken to modernise the economy.

洛佩斯·奥夫拉多尔曾数次反对上届政府采取的经济现代化措施。

His critics liken him to Hugo Chávez, whose "Bolivarian revolution" has brought ruin to Venezuela.

他的批评者将他比作乌戈·查韦斯，乌戈·查韦斯的玻利瓦尔革命给委内瑞拉带来了毁灭。

The nationalist populism he offers is unlike anything Mexico has seen since the early 1980s.

但奥夫拉多尔提出的民族和民粹主义，墨西哥人自20世纪80年代早期起就闻所未闻。

And if the polls are right, he will win.

而如果民调正确，他将会当选。

With that, Latin America's second-biggest country will join a clutch of democracies where electorates have rebelled against the established order.

随之而来的是，拉丁美洲第二大国将加入民主国家团体，在这些国家中，选民背叛了既有的秩序。

What is about to happen in Mexico feels akin to the election of Donald Trump in America, Britain's vote to leave the European Union and Italy'sturn towards populism.

墨西哥将要发生的事，似乎会类似于特朗普在美国的选举、英国的脱欧投票和意大利向民粹主义的转向。

It may be repeated in Brazil, where the front-runner to win the presidency in October is Jair Bolsonaro,

同样的情形或会在巴西重现，巴西将在十月举行总统竞选，

who speaks viciously about gay people but warmly of military rule.

目前的领跑者雅伊尔·博尔索纳罗对同性恋恶言相向，但对军事统治却饱含热情。

The causes of popular anger vary.

引起民愤的原因各不相同。

In Latin America, as elsewhere, voters are furious at elites they regard as corrupt, ineffectual and condescending.

在拉丁美洲，同其他地区一样，投票者认为精英为贪污腐败、低效无能、自视高人一等，对此满怀怒火。

Just as American populists decry the "swamp" in Washington and Brazilians are aghast at the filth of their political class,

美国的民粹主义者抨击美国政府是“泥潭”，巴西人惊骇于政治阶层的污秽不堪，

Mr López Obrador fulminates against the "mafia of power" that he claims controls Mexico.

与此相似，洛佩斯·奥夫拉多尔强烈谴责“黑手党势力”，他声称“黑手党势力”要控制墨西哥。