2018年经济学人朝鲜经济:下一个越南？别指望了(1)（打印版）

As America presses North Korea to abandon nuclear weapons, it has pointed to Vietnam as an example of the prosperity that awaits the isolated state.

美国施压朝鲜要求其放弃核武器，美国举例越南，指出越南的繁荣就是朝鲜的将来。

"It can be your miracle in North Korea as well," Mike Pompeo, the secretary of state, said on July 8th, on a visit to Hanoi.

“这也可以是发生在朝鲜的奇迹，” 7月8日，美国国务卿迈克·蓬佩奥来访河内时说道。

It is not the first time Vietnam has been held up as a model for North Korea.

这已不是第一次将越南作为朝鲜的榜样了。

Over the years, officials from the two countries have discussed lessons from Vietnam's reforms.

多年来，两国官员都在讨论越南改革中的教训。

North Korea sees Vietnam as less threatening than China and more of a peer, making it a more welcome mentor.

相比中国，朝鲜认为越南的威胁更小，更多的是把越南当做同地位国家，这使得越南成为朝鲜更受欢迎的导师。

But North Korea's economic path is likely to be more fraught.

但是朝鲜的经济道路似乎更令人担忧。

Yes, there are similarities. Like North Korea's economy today, Vietnam's used to be largely collectivised.

没错，两国之间有相似之处。和朝鲜现在的经济一样，越南也曾主要是集体化经济。

The Vietnamese Communist party's ability to retain power at the same time as freeing markets must appeal to Kim Jong Un,

越南共产党保存政权以及市场自由化的能力一定很吸引金正恩，

North Korea's dictator, who has vowed to improve his country's economy.

这名朝鲜独裁者承诺将改善本国经济。

In 1985, on the eve of Vietnam's doi moi liberalising reforms, its GDP per person was a mere 1% of America's.

1985年，越南改革自由化前夕，其人均GDP仅为美国人均GDP的1%。

In 2015 North Korea was in an identical position relative to America,

UN数据（根据朝鲜公布少量数据的粗略评估）显示，

according to UN figures (rough estimates, since North Korea publishes few statistics).

2015年的朝鲜相较于美国也处于相同的位子。

Diplomatically, the comparison also makes sense.

从外交上来讲，这样的比较也是有道理的。

Vietnam shows that a country can go quite quickly from being a sworn enemy of America to a close trading partner.

越南的经历表明一个国家可以从美国不共戴天的敌人迅速成为其亲密的贸易伙伴。

Vietnam's normalisation of relations came in 1995, just two decades after the two countries ended their war.

越南的外交关系正常化出现于1995年—两国结束彼此战争仅20年后。

America is now the biggest destination for Vietnamese exports.

现在美国已经是越南出口的最大目的地。

The shift could be faster for North Korea: its propagandists may have described America as its arch-enemy until recently,

这种转变对于朝鲜而言可以更快：直到最近，朝鲜的宣传者或许将美国描述成其主要敌人，

but it has been more than six decades since they fought.

但是自两国战争以来已经有六十多年了。