2018年经济学人 商品:全球形势紧张(1)（在线收听）

They make an intriguing posse: about 160 "scouts" in jeans and muddy boots,

他们组编了一支有趣的民兵队伍：约有160位“童军”，他们穿着工装裤和泥糊糊的靴子

jumping out of cars with ropes in hand, plunging deep into corn (maize) and soyabean fields across the American Midwest.

手里拿着绳子从车上跳下来，一头扎进美国中西部的玉米地和大豆地里。

They are not just farmers. They include commodity traders and hedge-fund managers.

他们不仅仅只是农民。他们中有商品交易商和套保基金管理人。

Their quest: to predict this year's harvest by using ropes as a measure and counting, to the last ear of corn and soyabean pod, the yield in a given area.

他们探求的是：用绳子作为测量和计算工具测量所有玉米穗和大豆豆荚，预测今年这片土地的收成。

"We have a really beautiful crop. I think this is going to be a record," says Ted Seifried,

“我们的农作物很丰盛，我认为这次将创造纪录，”泰德·赛弗里德说道，

a market strategist at Zaner Group, a commodities brokerage in Chicago, during a stop in Nebraska on August 21st.

他是芝加哥一家商品证券行Zaner Group的一名市场策略顾问，8月21日来到内布拉斯加州作短暂停留。

The mud on his boots is a reassuring sign of ample moisture in the soil.

他靴子上的泥泞是土地水分充足的可靠迹象。

But when he gets back into the car with others on the Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour,

但当他和谷物评估机构Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour的其他人回到车里时，

the talk turns to darker subjects, such as trade tensions, collapsing currencies and what he calls the start of an "economic cold war" between America and China.

话题转到了更加黑暗的主题，比如贸易紧张、货币崩溃以及他口中的中美‘经济冷战’的开端。

"While we're driving the 15-25 miles from field to field, we certainly have a lot to talk about.

“我们在田间开了15到25英里，我们当然有很多问题要谈。

By and large the American producer thinks the fight with China is just. But it's very much affecting the pocketbook."

总体上来说，美国制造商认为和中国的贸易战争是合理的。但这也对他们的经济来源造成巨大影响。”

From the midwestern farm belt to the commodity markets of Chicago, New York, London and Shanghai,

从中西部的农业区到芝加哥、纽约、伦敦和上海的商品市场，

this is a tricky time to be producing and trading commodities. Americans may relish their stockmarkets soaring.

此时是生产商品和进行商品交易的微妙时刻。美国人或许期盼他们的股票市场高歌猛进。

But a rising dollar, higher American interest rates, sliding emerging-market currencies and fears of a tariff-induced blow to exports to China

但是美元升值、美国利率增加、新兴市场货币下滑以及对出口中国征收关税的恐惧

have taken a toll on commodity prices in recent months.

在近几个月对商品价格造成严重影响。