2020年经济学人 前美联储主席保罗·沃尔克(2)（在线收听）

He was struck by Friedrich Hayek's observation that the only way inflation cured unemployment was by disguising cuts in real wages. This linked inflation and deception indelibly in his head. Price instability destroyed trust, not only in the dollar but in government; and trust that officials would work for the common good, as his father had selflessly worked in Teaneck, was basic to the social contract. These feelings, more than any strong commitment to monetarism, convinced him that gentle rate-raising would not be enough.

弗里德里希·哈耶克认为通胀解决失业问题的唯一方法是掩盖实际工资的削减，这让保罗印象深刻。他在脑子里把通货膨胀和欺骗不可磨灭地联系在一起。价格不稳定不仅摧毁了人们对美元的信任，也摧毁了人们对政府的信任；还有对官员会为公众利益工作的信任，就像他的父亲无私地在蒂内克工作那样，这是社会契约的基础。这些感觉，而不是对货币主义的坚定承诺，让他深信平缓的提升比率是不够的。

And with inflation running at well over 5% for most of the 1970s, he arrived at the Fed ready to tighten until interest rates went through the roof. This caused fury and despair. As consumers stopped spending, home-building tanked and businesses closed down. Angry crowds and farmers on tractors besieged the Fed; the keys to cars that dealers could not sell were sent to him in the mail.

20世纪70年代的大多数时间通胀率都远高于5%，他在上任美联储之初，就准备好要收紧货币政策，直到利率飙升。这导致了愤怒和绝望。随着消费者停止消费，住房建设表现糟糕，企业大量倒闭。愤怒的人群和开着拖拉机的农民包围了美联储；汽车经销商把卖不出去的车钥匙邮寄给他。

Though he had doubts, and wore out his office carpet with anxious pacing, he kept at it: not just because expectations would leap back up if he relented, but because persistence was a virtue in itself. And he stayed on guard, so much so that during Ronald Reagan's 1984 campaign he was ordered by Reagan himself not to dare raise interest rates before the election, even though, by then, he was not intending to. Reagan's men thought he wanted to hold the economy back, and tried to dislodge him. He opposed the president's tax cut in 1981 unless it was matched by cuts in spending, but this was not political; deficits led to inflation. Besides, to a man who believed in frugality and discipline, they were also offensive.

尽管他有疑虑，在办公室焦急地走来走去，把地毯都磨坏了，但是他还是坚持了下来：不仅是因为政策温和后人们的期待会重新高涨，而且是因为坚持本身就是一项美德。保罗保持着警惕，以至于在罗纳德·里根1984年的竞选中，里根本人对他下令，在精选之前不要提升利率。尽管那时候他也没这个打算。里根的人认为他想要阻止经济发展，并试图将他赶下台。保罗在1981年反对总统的减税，除非同时削减开支，但这不是出于政治目的；赤字会导致通货膨胀。此外，对于一个崇尚节俭和纪律的人来说，这也是一种冒犯。