2020年经济学人 妙招还是蠢招--美国暗杀伊朗将领(1)（在线收听）

Leaders

来源于《社论》版块

Masterstroke or madness?

妙举还是愚蠢的行为？

Donald Trump wants to curb Iran’s aggression. The question is whether he has gone about it the right way

唐纳德·特朗普想要遏制伊朗的侵略。问题是他的做法是否正确

The killing of Qassem Suleimani by an American drone on January 3rd threatened to bring the United States and Iran closer to war than at any time since the hostage crisis in 1979. In a part of the world that has lost the power to shock, the audacious killing of Iran’s most important general, ordered by President Donald Trump, sent Iran reeling. In public ceremonies millions of Iranians put aside their discontent with the regime to mark General Suleimani’s death. Blood-curdling threats of destruction issued from the Middle East, echoed by warnings of mayhem from Western experts. And yet a retaliatory missile strike on two American bases in Iraq five days later killed nobody. It looked like a face-saving attempt by Iran to wind the crisis down. If that were the end of it, Mr Trump would be right to say that his strike had worked, as he suggested on January 8th. Ridding the world of a baleful individual and forcing Iran to curb its aggression really would be worthwhile achievements. In the coming months, that may indeed be how things turn out. The trouble is that nobody, including Mr Trump, can count on it.

1月3日，卡西姆·苏莱曼尼被一架美国无人机击毙，可能导致美国和伊朗更容易爆发战争，这是自1979年人质危机以来最严重的一次冲突。在这个已经有些麻木的地区，唐纳德·特朗普总统下令对伊朗最重要的将军大胆猎杀，伊朗举国震惊。在公众仪式上，数百万伊朗人放下对现政权的不满，缅怀苏莱曼尼将军的死亡。中东发出了令人毛骨悚然的毁灭威胁，西方专家也发出了可能造成混乱的警告。然而，5天后，一枚报复性导弹袭击了美国在伊拉克的两个基地，无人死亡。这看起来像是伊朗试图挽回颜面以结束危机。如果事情就此结束，特朗普可以正确地说，正如他在1月8日所暗示的那样，他的罢工起了作用。消除世界上一个邪恶的个人，并迫使伊朗遏制其侵略，确实是值得取得的成就。在接下来的几个月里，事情可能真的会变成这样。问题是，包括特朗普在内，没有人能指望它。

Two tests will define whether the killing of the general was a success—its effect on deterrence and on Iran’s regional power. For the past year Mr Trump has stood by as Iran and its proxies attacked merchant shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, two American drones, oil facilities in Saudi Arabia and military bases in Iraq. Because it had concluded that there was no price to pay, Iran was becoming more brazen and belligerent. The beneficial effect of the drone strike on January 3rd is to re-establish the idea that America is willing to hit back. Iran’s restraint on Tuesday this week signals that it does not want to face an aerial onslaught by America. Another Iranian missile strike is less likely today than it was just weeks ago.

两项测试将会决定杀死将军是否是明智之举——它对威慑和伊朗地区力量的影响。过去一年里，伊朗及其代理人在霍尔木兹海峡袭击商船、两架美国无人机、沙特阿拉伯的石油设施和伊拉克的军事基地，特朗普一直袖手旁观。因为伊朗得出的结论是没有代价，从而变得更加肆无忌惮和好战。1月3日的无人机袭击带来的好处是重新树立了美国愿意反击的观念。伊朗本周周二的克制表明，它不希望面对美国的空袭。与几周前相比，伊朗再次发动导弹袭击的可能性有所降低。