2020年经济学人 新冠病毒对世界经济的影响(1)（在线收听）

Leaders

来源于2月15日刊《社论》版块

Disease and growth

疾病和发展

Viral slowdown

病毒放缓

How China’s epidemic could hurt the world economy

这次病毒会如何影响世界经济

When shocks hit the global economy, Wall Street looks to history to see what will happen next. The outbreak in China of covid-19, a respiratory disease, invites a comparison to the last one, SARS. In that outbreak in 2003 China su?ered a sharp hit to its growth, followed by a strong rebound. Although covid-19 has now claimed more lives than SARS, investors remain optimistic that its economic e?ects will follow a similar path.

当全球经济受到冲击时，华尔街回顾历史，预测接下来发生的事情。呼吸疾病covid-19在中国的爆发，让人联想起上一次的SARS。在2003年那场疫情爆发中，中国经济增长遭受了重创，随后出现了强劲反弹。尽管covid-19现在比SARS致死率更低，但投资者仍然乐观地认为，此次疫情对经济的影响将遵循类似的路径。

On February 13th Hubei province, centre of the outbreak, announced 14,840 new con?rmed cases, a sharp rise. That was because it suddenly started including CT-scan diagnoses, not just speci?c tests for the virus. Although the statistical fog is thick, indicators such as the fall in new cases outside Hubei and the total of suspected cases suggest that the rate of fresh infections may be trending lower.

2月13日，疫情中心湖北省宣布新增确诊病例14840例，这是一个激增的数字。这是因为现在开始了CT扫描诊断确诊，而不仅仅是特定的病毒检测。尽管统计数据并不完全精准，但湖北以外地区新增病例和疑似病例总数的下降等指标表明，新增病例的比例可能正在下降。

Most economists have thus only nudged down their forecasts for full-year global growth. Chinese stocks and commodities, which track economic prospects, have clawed back ground after initial falls. Global stockmarkets are higher than they were in January, when the severity of the outbreak became clear. We hope their optimism is justi?ed. Yet the comparison makes two assumptions: in supposing that containing the virus maps neatly onto a better economic outlook; and in thinking that the world still works as it did when SARS was a threat.

因此，多数经济学家只是略微调低了对全球全年增长的预测。中国股市和大宗商品紧跟经济预期，在最初的下跌后已回到基线。全球股市情况好于1月份，当时疫情的严重程度已经很明显。我们希望他们的乐观是有道理的。然而，这种比较有两个假设：假设控制住病毒会带来更好的经济前景；认为世界仍然像受SARS影响时那样运转。