2020年经济学人 新冠病毒对世界经济的影响(2)（在线收听）

There is an inherent tension between China’s apparent success in containing the epidemic and its growth prospects. Though less lethal, covid-19 seems more infectious than SARS. China has slowed its advance only by severely limiting people’s movement and closing businesses. If the government were to relax these controls too hastily, progress could stall or even go into reverse. So far, o?cials have erred on the side of caution. Provinces accounting for more than 90% of Chinese exports have kept factories either shut or running at low capacity since January 31st, when the lunar new-year holiday was due to end.

中国在控制疫情方面的明显成功与经济增长前景之间存在内在矛盾。尽管致死率较低，但covid-19似乎比SARS传染性更强。中国通过严格限制人员流动和暂停企业来放缓其发展速度。如果政府过于仓促地放松这些控制，进展可能会停滞甚至倒退。到目前为止，当局都非常谨慎。自1月31日农历新年假期即将结束以来，占中国出口90%以上的省份要么关闭工厂，要么低产能运行。

It is hard to overstate the e?ect on the economy. Coal consumption is more than a third lower than the average for this time of year. Property sales are down by more than 90%. After the holiday some 200m people usually leave their home towns to return to work. This year the trains that carry migrants have been nearly empty. Cities have warned outsiders that they might face 14-day quarantines. Nine out of ten companies surveyed by the American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai have employees working from home. Couriers still zoom around on their electric motorbikes, but the takeaway trade is not saving restaurants because people fear eating meals prepared by strangers who may be infected. Grabbing a latte is a risk too far. Starbucks has shut half its 4,000-plus cafés in China.

对经济的影响怎么说都不过分。煤炭消费量比今年同期的平均水平低三分之一以上。房地产销售下降了90%以上。以往春节假期后，约有2亿人离开家乡返工。今年，春运的火车几乎空无一人。城市提醒外来人员可能面临14天的隔离。上海美国商会调查的十家公司中，有九家的员工在家办公。虽然快递员仍然开着电动摩托车四处奔波，但外卖行业并不能拯救餐馆，因为人们害怕吃到由可能被感染的陌生人准备的食物。喝拿铁咖啡的风险太大了。星巴克已经关闭了其在中国的4000多家咖啡店的一半。

The second doubt is over the relevance of SARS as a comparison. The global economy has changed since 2003, when SARS struck. China now accounts for 16% of global gdp, up from 4% back then. And it is the world’s second-biggest importer, so any weakness, however temporary, is felt far and wide. Already, some of its ?rms are trying to get out of contractual commitments to import copper and lique?ed natural gas. And its tourists, who spend $250bn a year on overseas travel, are staying at home.

第二个疑问是SARS作为一个比较的相关性。自2003年SARS爆发以来，全球经济发生了变化。中国目前占全球GDP的16%，高于当时的4%。而且中国是世界第二大进口国，因此任何疲软，无论多么短暂，都将影响深远。中国的一些公司已经在试图摆脱进口铜和液化天然气的合同承诺。中国游客每年在海外旅游上的支出为2500亿美元，而现在都待在国内。