2020年经济学人 新冠病毒对世界经济的影响(3)（在线收听）

ounting for China’s increased size is easy. But the economy has not just grown since 2000; its manufacturers have also become enmeshed in supply chains of mind-boggling complexity. A factory in Wuhan may provide parts to a ?rm elsewhere in China, which in turn supplies a factory in Stuttgart, with the ?nal product emerging in Michigan. Just-in-time production leaves little room for delays. Many ?rms cannot trace all their suppliers, making it hard to predict the impact of work stoppages in China on their output, let alone on global GDP. History provides little guidance on the e?ects of disrupted supply chains, because the world economy has not been organised around them for long.

中国体量扩大很好解释。但自2000年以来，经济并不仅仅是增长；制造商也以令人难以置信的复杂程度陷入了供应链中。武汉的工厂可能为中国其他地方的公司提供零部件，进一步为斯图加特的工厂提供零部件，最终产品将在密歇根州生产。准时制生产几乎没有延迟的余地。许多公司无法追踪所有的供应商，因此很难预测中国停工对其产出的影响，更不用说对全球GDP的影响了。关于供应链中断的影响，历史提供的指导很少，因为世界经济并没有长期围绕供应链组织起来。

Some problems have already emerged. Hyundai has halted some car production in South Korea because parts are short. So has Nissan in Japan. Facebook has stopped taking orders for its new virtual-reality headset and Nintendo has delayed shipments of new gaming devices. Foxconn, which makes smartphones for Apple and Huawei, has restarted its factories but with skeletal sta?ng. And these are just the brands you have heard of. China churns out a third of the world’s chemicals, half of its LCD screens and two-thirds of its polyester. Companies that think they are isolated from China could be in for a surprise.

一些问题已经出现。由于零部件短缺，现代汽车已停止在韩国的部分汽车生产。日本的尼桑也是如此。Facebook已经停止接受虚拟现实头盔的订单，任天堂也推迟了新游戏设备的发货。为苹果和华为生产智能手机的富士康已经重启了工厂，但人手不足。这些只是你听说过的品牌。世界三分之一的化学品、一半的液晶显示屏和三分之二的聚酯纤维都由中国生产。那些认为自己被中国孤立的公司可能会大吃一惊。

It is also possible that the virus spreads rapidly outside China. Infections in developing countries may be going undetected. Vietnam has quarantined 10,000 people, but most governments could not enact the measures that China is using to slow the disease, so covid-19 could yet become a pandemic. Wall Street’s optimism, in other words, is premature. If economists have a bias, it is to focus on things that are measurable and quanti?able. Alas, the covid-19 outbreak brings many risks that are not.

病毒也有可能在中国境外迅速传播。发展中国家的感染可能不会被发现。越南已经隔离了1万人，但大多数政府无法效仿中国正在采取的措施来减缓疫情，因此，covid-19仍有可能成为全球流行病。换句话说，华尔街的乐观还为时过早。如果说经济学家有偏见的话，那就是太关注那些可以衡量和量化的东西。可叹，covid-19的爆发带来了许多无法量化的风险。