2020年经济学人非洲货币(2)（打印版）

Commodity exports and aid inflows raise demand for local currencies, making them stronger.

大宗商品出口和援助流入增加了对本币的需求，使本币更加强势。

Governments fear depreciation because they depend on imported capital to finance infrastructure projects;

各国政府担心货币贬值，因为他们依赖进口资本为基础设施项目融资；

a weak currency forces them to raise more revenue to pay back foreign debts.

疲软的货币迫使他们筹集更多的收入来偿还外债。

Depreciation also pushes up the cost of imported goods, including food, medicine and fuel.

贬值还推高了进口商品的成本，包括食品、药品和燃料。

Those are mostly consumed by city folk, who are more prone to protest than those in the countryside.

这些都是城市居民消费的，他们比住在乡下的人更倾向于抗议。

Inflation hits industry, too.

通货膨胀也打击了工业。

Nigerian firms buy much of their machinery and inputs from abroad and so are hurt by higher import prices,

尼日利亚公司从国外购买大量的机械设备和原材料，因此受到进口价格上涨的影响，

says Segun Ajayi-Kadir, the director-general of the Manufacturers Association of Nigeria.

尼日利亚制造商协会的总干事Segun Ajayi-Kadir说到。

Ethiopian factories import about half of their raw materials. Garment firms ship in fabric; shoemakers, leather.

埃塞俄比亚的工厂大约一半的原材料是进口的。服装公司从海外采购织物；制鞋厂采购皮革。

Left unchecked, inflation erodes any boost to exports. Consider a 10% depreciation in the "nominal" exchange rate—

如果不加以抑制，通胀就会侵蚀对出口的提振。考虑在“名义”汇率上贬值10%——

that is, the rate advertised in newspapers or at a bureau de change.

即新闻刊登的或外币兑换所的汇率。

If domestic prices also rise by about 10% then there is no change in the "real" exchange rate,

如果国内价格也上涨约10%，那么衡量国内和

which measures relative prices of domestic and foreign goods, and that is what counts.

国外商品相对价格的“实际”汇率就没有变化，这才是关键。

In practice prices rarely jump that much: in 2012 IMF researchers estimated that in sub-Saharan Africa

实际上，价格基本不会上涨那么多：2012年，IMF研究人员估计，在撒哈拉以南的非洲，

a 10% depreciation typically results in domestic price rises of only 4%. But to maintain an undervalued real exchange rate,

贬值10%通常只会导致国内价格上涨4%。但是为了维持低估的实际汇率，

governments would have to limit inflation by containing local demand, for example by trimming public spending,

各国政府将不得不通过抑制国内需求来抑制通胀，比如通过削减公共开支，

notes Abebe Aemro Selassie, the director of the IMF's Africa department.

IMF非洲部主管Abebe Aemro Selassie指出。

As this is difficult, countries do not typically contemplate strategic undervaluation.

由于战略性低估很困难，所以各国通常不会考虑。

Perhaps this is not a surprise. Much like tackling corruption or fixing the myriad other problems African economies face,

或许这并不令人意外。就像解决腐败问题或解决非洲经济体面临的无数其他问题一样，

strategic undervaluation is hard to pull off. It imposes real wage cuts on the workforce, notes Christopher Adam of Oxford University,

战略性低估很难实现。牛津大学的克里斯多夫·亚当指出，它对劳动力进行了实际的工资削减，

so "you're imposing the cost on current workers and consumers for the benefit of future generations."

因此“你就把成本强加给了现在的工人和消费者，以造福未来几代人。”

No wonder politicians prefer their exchange rates strong.

难怪政客们更喜欢强劲的汇率。