2020年经济学人新型冠状病毒和市场动荡(1)（打印版）

When America, the hub of global capital, is this far into an economic expansion and a bull market,

当作为全球资本中心的美国深陷入经济扩张和牛市时，

investors feel two conflicting impulses. They hope that the good times will last, so they are reluctant to pull their money out.

投资者感到了两种相互矛盾的冲动。他们希望这种好日子能够持续，所以他们不愿意把钱拿出来。

They also worry that the party may suddenly end. This is the late-cycle mindset.

他们也担心盛会突然终止。这就是晚周期的思维模式。

It reacts to occasional growth scares—about trade wars or corporate debt or some other upset.

它会对偶尔出现的增长恐慌做出反应——比如贸易战争或公司债务或其他让人心烦的事情。

But it tends not to take them seriously for long. Covid-19 is a grave threat to the market's poise.

但严肃态度不会持续太长。新型冠状病毒（Covid-19）对市场的稳定构成了严重威胁。

News from Italy of the biggest coronavirus outbreak outside Asia

2月24日，意大利爆发亚洲以外最严重的冠状病毒疫情的消息

led to a 3.4% decline in the S&P 500 index of American stocks on February 24th, the biggest one-day fall for two years.

导致美国标准普尔500指数下跌3.4%，创下两年来最大单日跌幅。

The rout encompassed global stockmarkets, which were down sharply from highs reached earlier in February.

股市暴跌波及全球股市，全球股市从2月初的高点大幅下跌。

As The Economist went to press, the markets remained nervy.

本期《经济学人》付印时，股市依然紧张。

In the face of such uncertainty, more days like Monday are to be expected.

在这种不确定性面前，预计还会有更多像周一这样的日子。

Investors have, sensibly, tried to calculate which assets are most exposed to the shock. Copper, an economic bellwether, plunged.

投资者理智地试图计算哪些资产最容易受到冲击。作为经济领头羊的铜，价格暴跌。

The worst-hit stocks were of firms that rely on far-flung supply chains, such as carmakers;

受打击最严重的是那些依赖于分布广泛供应链的公司，比如汽车制造业；

or are directly affected by restrictions on travel, such as airlines;

或是直接受到旅行限制影响的公司，如航空业；

or are most exposed to a China-led global slowdown, such as oil firms. Investors scrambled for safe assets.

或最容易受到中国引领的全球经济放缓影响的公司，如石油公司。投资者争相购买安全资产。

Gold reached a seven-year high. The dollar rallied.

黄金价格创下七年新高。美元上涨。

The yield on ten-year Treasury bonds fell to an all-time low of 1.29% on February 27th.

2月27日，十年期国债收益率跌至历史最低点1.29%。

But there is also an uneasy sense that the virus could trigger a bigger rupture in financial markets

但人们也有一种不安的感觉——这种病毒可能会触发金融市场更大的破裂，

that have been going up by so much for so long that pockets of dangerous risk-taking are bound to exist.

长期以来，金融市场上涨幅度如此之大，必然存在一些危险的冒险行为。

Two worries are top of mind: the opaque edifice of financial instruments that rely on low volatility, and the swollen credit markets.

人们最担心的两个问题是：依赖于低波动性的金融工具的不透明大厦，以及膨胀的信贷市场。