2020年经济学人 Covid-19:世界已做好准备(6)（在线收听）

Be prepared

做好准备

America is ahead of most countries in planning for such things, says Dr Hanfling. Disasters such as Hurricane Katrina— when many patients died in hospitals that were unprepared for disaster—laid bare the need to prepare for the worst. Each year the federal government gives states and hospitals about $1bn specifically for disaster preparedness. That is more than the national health budget of many African countries. Other countries’ recent experience may help them. Kerala, the only state in India to have confirmed cases of covid-19, swiftly contained an outbreak of Nipah, a nasty virus, in 2018 and has since bolstered its health system. Uganda has held back the spread of Ebola from next-door Congo and in the process built up stocks of protective clothing for health-care workers.

汉弗林博士称，美国在这方面的规划领先于大多数国家。像卡特里娜飓风这样的灾难——当许多病人死在对灾难毫无准备的医院里时，我们需要做最坏的打算。联邦政府每年专门为各州和医院提供约10亿美元的防灾资金。这比许多非洲国家的国家卫生预算还多。其他国家最近的经验可能会对他们有所帮助。印度喀拉拉邦是印度唯一一个确诊covid-19病例的邦，在2018年迅速控制了一种叫尼帕的难对付的病毒的爆发，并从那以后加强了卫生系统。乌干达阻止了邻国刚果的埃博拉病毒的传播，并在这个过程中为卫生保健工作者储备了防护服。

But poor countries would be hit particularly hard by outbreaks of covid-19. Uganda is used to dealing with diseases transmitted through blood, mosquitoes or parasites. Covid-19, if it comes, could spread quickly and unpredictably, which would test a cash-strapped health-care system. Ian Clarke, chair of a private health federation based in Uganda, worries that the mortality rates could be higher in Africa than they are in China because many people already have weakened immune systems as a result of HIV or poor nutrition. SARS mostly skipped Africa; the continent may not be so lucky with the new virus.

但是贫穷国家将会受到特别严重的covid-19爆发的打击。乌干达习惯于处理通过血液、蚊子或寄生虫传播的疾病。如果Covid-19真的出现了，它可能会迅速而不可预测地蔓延开来，这将考验一个资金紧张的医疗体系。设在乌干达的一个私营卫生联盟的主席伊恩·克拉克担心，非洲的死亡率可能比中国高，因为许多人已经因为艾滋病或营养不良而导致免疫系统衰弱。SARS没有在非洲大面积爆发；非洲大陆可能没那么幸运能避免这种新病毒的影响。