2020年经济学人 病毒来袭--Covid-19恐成全球性流行病(3)（在线收听）

China’s second lesson is that governments can slow the spread of the disease. Flattening the spike of the epidemic means that health systems are less overwhelmed, which saves lives. If, like flu, the virus turns out to be seasonal, some cases could be delayed until next winter, by which time doctors will understand better how to cope with it. By then, new vaccines and antiviral drugs may be available.

中国的第二个教训是政府可以减缓疾病的传播。使疫情高峰趋于平缓意味着卫生系统不再那么不堪重负，从而挽救更多生命。如果这种病毒像流感一样是季节性的，那么有些病例可能会推迟到明年冬天，那时医生们将更好地了解如何应对。届时，可能会有新的疫苗和抗病毒药物。

When countries have few cases, they can follow each one, tracing contacts and isolating them. But when the disease is spreading in the community, that becomes futile. Governments need to prepare for the moment when they will switch to social distancing, which may include cancelling public events, closing schools, staggering work hours and so on. Given the uncertainties, governments will have to choose how draconian they want to be. They should be guided by science. International travel bans look decisive, but they offer little protection because people find ways to move. They also signal that the problem is “them” infecting “us”, rather than limiting infections among “us”. Likewise, if the disease has spread widely, as in Italy and South Korea, “Wuhan-lite” quarantines of whole towns offer scant protection at a high cost.

当国家病例很少时，跟踪每一个病例、追踪并隔离接触者是能做到的。但是当疾病在社区传播时，这些举措就发挥不了多少作用了。政府需要为疏远社交距离的时刻做准备，这可能包括取消公共活动、关闭学校、错峰工作等等。鉴于这些不确定性，各国政府将不得不选择他们希望采取的严厉措施。各国政府应以科学为指导。国际旅行禁令看起来起决定性作用，但能提供的保护有限，因为人们想出行总有办法。禁止出行还表明，人们认为问题是“他们”感染了“我们”，而不是限制了“我们”之间的感染。同样地，如果这种疾病像在意大利和韩国那样广泛传播，类似武汉的隔离也不能提供足够的保护，而且成本高昂。

Scrub up

彻底清洗消毒

The third lesson is to prepare health systems for what is to come. That entails painstaking logistical planning. Hospitals need supplies of gowns, masks, gloves, oxygen and drugs. They should already be conserving them. They will run short of equipment, including ventilators. They need a scheme for how to set aside wards and floors for covid-19 patients, for how to cope if staff fall ill, and for how to choose between patients if they are overwhelmed. By now, this work should have been done.

第三个教训是，卫生系统要为将要侵袭的病毒做好准备。这需要极其仔细的后勤规划。医院需要隔离衣、口罩、手套、氧气和药品。这些应对医院起到保护作用。医院将会缺乏设备，包括人工呼吸机。医院需要规划好如何为covid-19患者留出病房和楼层，如何应对医护人员生病的情况，以及在患者人数不堪重负怎样抉择。到现在为止，这项工作已经完成了。

This virus has already exposed the strengths and weaknesses of China’s authoritarianism. It will test all the political systems with which it comes into contact, in both rich and developing countries. China has bought governments time to prepare for a pandemic. They should use it.

这种病毒已经揭示了体制的优缺点。它还将考验所侵之地的所有政治制度，无论发达国家还是发展中国家。中国已经为各国政府争取到为流行病做准备的时间。各国政府应善加利用。