PBS高端访谈:探究苏格兰的可持续能源发展（在线收听）

HARI SREENIVASAN: There has recently been a steady drumbeat of reports from climate scientists warning that there is less and less time for us to take collective action to slow the disastrous effects of climate change. The United States has withdrawn from the Paris climate agreement, and the president has been an open skeptic of established facts. This has not deterred a global green revolution; countries around the world are continuing to move forward with investments in renewable energy. We'll be looking at various, innovative energy efforts periodically, starting with one underway in Scotland. The country is nearly 70 percent powered by renewable sources already, with the goal of reaching 100 percent by 2020, 10 years ahead of schedule. Their power traditionally came from deep sea oil and gas, but the ocean has a lot more to give, as you'll see in this, the first of a two-part series.

HARI SREENIVASAN: In a giant industrial hangar on the eastern coast of Scotland, technicians are servicing two turbines, each with 3, 30 foot blades. They're not wind turbines. These are actually designed to be 100 feet underwater, capturing energy not from the wind, but from tidal currents. Once they get this 150-ton turbine into the water, this entire thing will swivel with the tide, four times a day, generating about enough power for 1,000 homes. For the past year these turbines, and two others, have been in the Pentland Firth, a strait off the northern coast of mainland Scotland. It's called the MeyGen project.

EDDIE SCOTT: The blades, for example, we made from carbon fiber.

HARI SREENIVASAN: Eddie Scott is the health and safety manager with SIMEC Atlantis Energy, and part of the team that oversees installing these devices underwater. To get them in place, the turbines are guided onto steel bases on the seafloor.

HARI SREENIVASAN: You can drop this in to its base and get it plugged in how long?

EDDIE SCOTT: We can do that within about 30 to 40 minutes.

HARI SREENIVASAN: As the tide ebbs and flows, the turbines spin between 7 and 15 times a minute, generating power, similar to a wind turbine. Cables carry the energy back to the shore, first underwater, then underground, where it's then fed into the national grid. The tides are so predictable that Atlantis says it can tell how much energy these turbines will generate every 15 minutes for the next 25 years.

HARI SREENIVASAN: So you don't have to worry about whether there's clouds on a sunny day for solar. You don't have to worry about whether there's a stiff breeze or not.

EDDIE SCOTT: That's the real advantage of tidal energy, it's very, very predictable.

HARI SREENIVASAN: Scotland is estimated to have a quarter of all the tidal energy resources in Europe. And Scottish companies have helped lead the way in developing technology to harness those currents. MeyGen, here in northern Scotland, is the world's largest planned tidal project, and over the next four years, SIMEC Atlantis is planning on installing more than 250 additional turbines.

TIM CORNELIUS: When it's fully done, you're talking more than a quarter of a million homes can benefit from the power that's generated from this array of turbines.

HARI SREENIVASAN: Tim Cornelius is the CEO of SIMEC Atlantis Energy. The company says the turbines at the MeyGen site are expected to last 25 years, and only need to come out of the water for maintenance every six years.

TIM CORNELIUS: It's in a very, very stable environment, and more importantly from a permitting and consenting perspective, you don't see them and you don't hear them, and that's very, very important for local communities.

HARI SREENIVASAN: But it's expensive being first. The cost of producing tidal energy is more than two and half times the more established technology of offshore wind. The MeyGen project has cost about $64 million so far, and has been largely subsidized with public money. Almost half of the total cost has come from the Scottish government.

TIM CORNELIUS: We are very, very grateful for the support that we have received over the past 10 years from the U.K. government, and in specific reference to Scottish government support because it's been outstanding. But, of course, the aspiration is to eventually wean itself off subsidy.

HARI SREENIVASAN: As the project continues to expand, Cornelius says costs are coming down. A year after the turbines were installed, the price SIMEC Atlantis charges the utility company for its tidal power has decreased by 50 percent.

PAUL WHEELHOUSE: The Scottish government has provided consistent and long term support for these technologies.

HARI SREENIVASAN: On stage, Paul Wheelhouse. He is the Scottish minister for energy, connectivity and the islands. We sat down with him at a conference on ocean energy in Edinburgh.

HARI SREENIVASAN: Can this industry survive without government subsidy?

PAUL WHEELHOUSE: We believe key technologies are already close to being in a position where they can survive without subsidy. Other technologies, which are newer, emerging technologies do need we believe continued support to get them to commercial scale, utility scale projects that will then get the economies of scale and the manufacturing process and drive down the price and prove their competitiveness.

HARI SREENIVASAN: Wheelhouse says these government investments will help Scotland reach its goal of being 100 percent powered by renewables by 2020. And then there's the transfer of technology that's happening.

TIM CORNELIUS: The great secret about the tidal power industry is while it looks like an incredible leap forward in engineering actually all we've been doing is just stealing the great ideas of the oil and gas industry over the last decade.

HARI SREENIVASAN: The facility where the tidal turbines are maintained also supports oil and gas platforms.

EDDIE SCOTT: Big cranes, heavy lifting equipment, moving large portions and large chunks of steel around. Some of the subsea technology is very, very similar, so there's a tremendous amount of of existing technology that we're using and capitalizing on.

HARI SREENIVASAN: For Wheelhouse, relying on the technology and knowledge gathered from decades of oil and gas exploration means continued jobs in this new energy sector.

PAUL WHEELHOUSE: We don't want to leave communities, entire communities behind as has happened in the past with coal mining, you know, just abandon them and leave them to their own devices.

HARI SREENIVASAN: So you're saying that you are creating opportunities for whether its coal miners or oil and gas workers to transition to this new renewable economy?

PAUL WHEELHOUSE: Yes.

HARI SREENIVASAN: And with the growing threat of climate change, Wheelhouse says the time to invest in new forms of renewable energy is now.

PAUL WHEELHOUSE: We have long argued that there is an economic advantage in moving early not least because we will have to do this. I believe firmly that climate change is happening and we cannot avoid tackling this issue globally.

HARI SREENIVASAN: While the tides these turbines are gathering energy from are predictable, the political winds around them are not. How Brexit could hamper this emerging industry; that's the subject of our piece tomorrow night.

哈里·斯瑞尼瓦桑：最近，不断有科学家发布与气候变化有关的预警报告。我们余下的时间越来越少，必须尽快齐心协力减缓气候变化的灾难性影响。美国已退出巴黎气候公约，而特朗普总统对既定事实却持怀疑态度。但这并未阻碍全球的绿色革命——世界各国依然在继续向可持续能源投入资金。我们正在周期性地关注能源领域各种创新性的努力，从苏格兰正在进行的一个能源工作开始。当前，苏格兰70%的能源都是由可持续能源提供的。其目标是在2020年之前达到100%的比例，比全球提前10年。苏格兰以前的能源是由深海石油和天然气提供的。但海洋能给予人类的不止于此。这一点在分为2部分的系列中可见一斑。

哈里·斯瑞尼瓦桑：在苏格兰东海岸的巨型工业机库里，技术人员正在维修2个涡轮，每个涡轮都有330英尺的叶片。这些并非风力涡轮机。设计它们的初衷是想让它们在水下达到100英尺的尺寸，摄取的能量并非风能，而是潮汐能。将这150吨的涡轮机放入水中后，涡轮机会随着潮汐而动，一天会有4次，发电量足够1000户人家使用。去年一年以来，这些涡轮机和另外2个涡轮机一直在朋特兰湾运作。朋特兰湾是苏格兰大陆北海岸的一个海峡。这个项目就是MeyGen。

埃迪·斯科特：比如，这些叶片是我们用碳纤维做的。

哈里·斯瑞尼瓦桑：埃迪·斯科特是SIMEC亚特兰蒂斯能源有限公司卫生安全部门的经历。他参与的一个团队是负责监管这些涡轮机水下安置的。要安置这些涡轮机，就需要将它们引导到海底的钢座上。

哈里·斯瑞尼瓦桑：把涡轮机安放在钢座上之后，需要多久能完成安置？

埃迪·斯科特：大概可以在30-40分钟内完成。

哈里·斯瑞尼瓦桑：潮涨潮落之间，这些涡轮机每分钟可以旋转7-15次发电，跟风力涡轮机相似。电缆将电能传送回岸上，先是水下，再是地下，然后进入国家电网。潮汐很容易预测，所以，亚特兰蒂斯公司称自己可以辨别未来25年里这些涡轮机每15分钟能发多少电。

哈里·斯瑞尼瓦桑：所以不必担心晴天有云彩的时候是否能获取太阳能。也不用担心是否风力太过微弱。

埃迪·斯科特：这是潮汐能优势的真正所在，即可预测性强。

哈里·斯瑞尼瓦桑：据估测，苏格兰1/4的潮汐能来自欧洲。苏格兰公司助力牵头研发技术来控制潮汐。苏格兰北部的MeyGen项目是世界各国计划列表里规模最大的潮汐项目。未来4年内，SIMEC亚特兰蒂斯公司计划再安装250个涡轮机。

蒂姆·科尼利厄斯：一旦这250个安装完成，这些涡轮机组所发的电将可以供应25万户人家。

哈里·斯瑞尼瓦桑：蒂姆·科尼利厄斯是SIMEC亚特兰蒂斯公司的首席执行官。该公司表示，MeyGen项目的涡轮机预计能用25年。期间只需要每6年从水下取出进行维修即可。

蒂姆·科尼利厄斯：涡轮机所处的环境是十分稳定的，而且更重要的、也是非常让人喜欢的一点是：我们平时看不见它们，也听不到它们的声音。这对于当地各社群来说是很重要的一点。

哈里·斯瑞尼瓦桑：但成本首先肯定是非常高昂的。产生潮汐能的成本是离岸风成本的2.5倍多。而且离岸风的技术更为成熟。目前，MeyGen项目的成本大概是6400万美元。其中大部分都是公共资金的补贴。总成本中的近半数都来自苏格兰政府。

蒂姆·科尼利厄斯：我们很感激过去10年来英国政府对我们的支持。尤其要感谢苏格兰政府的鼎力相助。不过，当然了，项目的最终目标是不再依靠补贴来运营。

哈里·斯瑞尼瓦桑：随着项目的扩张，科尼利厄斯表示，成本会逐渐下降。涡轮机组安装1年后，亚特兰蒂斯公司收取公用事业公司潮汐能的费用降低了50%。

保罗·惠尔豪斯：苏格兰政府为这些技术提供了长期持续的支持。

哈里·斯瑞尼瓦桑：我们请到了保罗·惠尔豪斯，他是苏格兰能源、互联部长，也负责与岛屿有关的事务。我们曾跟他一起参加过爱丁堡举行的海洋能源会议。

哈里·斯瑞尼瓦桑：这个行业在没有政府补贴的情况下能生存吗？

保罗·惠尔豪斯：我们认为，这些关键技术已经快进入没有补贴也能生存的时期了。我们认为，其他更新兴的技术确实更需要持续的支持，才能进入商业模式。接着，效用尺度的项目会进入规模经济和制造业的流程，从而实现价格下降并证明竞争力。

哈里·斯瑞尼瓦桑：惠尔豪斯表示，这些政府的投资会帮助苏格兰在2020年之前实现可持续能源100%供能的目标。然后，就会出现技术转让。

蒂姆·科尼利厄斯：潮汐能行业的一个大秘密是——虽然看起来像是工程领域实现了大跨越，但我们所做的不过是借鉴了过去10年里石油和天然气行业的一些好点子。

哈里·斯瑞尼瓦桑：潮汐涡轮设备维修的地方也支持石油和天然气平台。

埃迪·斯科特：大型起重机、厚重的起重设备可以将钢铁大件进行移动。一些海底技术十分相似，所以现有技术里有很多地方是我们正在使用和借鉴的。

哈里·斯瑞尼瓦桑：对惠尔豪斯而言，依赖过去几十年来石油和天然气勘探所积累的技术和知识意味着这个新能源领域会持续创造就业机会。

保罗·惠尔豪斯：我们不想离开各个社群，这些幕后的社群也是过去煤矿开采领域的社群。我们不想抛下他们，让他们固守自己的设备。

哈里·斯瑞尼瓦桑：所以您的意思是——你们在创造就业机会，而受益者可以是煤矿开采的工人、石油天然气领域的工人，让他们可以转向这个新的可持续经济中？

保罗·惠尔豪斯：是的。

哈里·斯瑞尼瓦桑：而随着气候变化的威胁逐渐加剧，惠尔豪斯表示，现在应该即可投资于新的可持续能源形势。

保罗·惠尔豪斯：长期以来，我们一直倡导宜早不宜迟，因为这是无可避免的道路。我坚定地认为，气候变化正在发生，这个问题是全球都无法回避的。

哈里·斯瑞尼瓦桑：虽然这些涡轮机赖以获取能量的潮汐是可预测的，但政坛风云却不可测。脱欧会如何阻碍潮汐能这个新行业，是我们明晚会讨论的主题。