2020年经济学人 疫情对航空运输业的打击（在线收听）

Business

来源于《商业》版块

Air transport

航空运输

Flight risk

飞行险

Most airlines are running on empty

多数航空公司现在一无所获

No industry has been more battered by covid-19 than air transport. With people wary of confined spaces--and country after country imposing travel bans--passenger numbers have nosedived, and with them airline revenues. The estimate of $113bn in lost sales, which the International Air Transport Association (IATA) made on March 5th, already looks rosy. The trade body says that the world's carriers may need $200bn in state aid to stay aloft.

没有哪个行业比航空运输业遭受的打击更严重。随着人们对空间距离——以及一个又一个国家实施旅行禁令——乘客人数和航空公司收入都大幅下降。国际航空运输协会在3月5日做出的销售额损失1130亿美元的估计已经看起来很乐观了。该贸易机构表示，全球航空公司可能需要2000亿美元的政府援助才能继续飞行。

Plenty were stalling before the pandemic. Of the 120 airline companies ranked by IATA only around 30 made money in 2017 and 2018. Last year the biggest half-dozen in Europe earned the bulk of the $7bn in profits there, calculates Citigroup, a bank. Many firms had borrowed heavily to buy planes which the virus has grounded. The 90-odd that are in the red have on average six times as much net debt (adjusted for aircraft leases) as EBITDAR (a measure of airline profits). In January the typical carrier had enough cash to cover between so% and 80% of short-term liabilities and about two months of revenues, IATA says. Three-quarters could not cover costs beyond three months-if that.

在疫情大流行之前，很多人都处于停滞状态。国际航空运输协会排名的120家航空公司中，只有大约30家在2017年和2018年实现了盈利。根据花旗银行的计算，去年欧洲最大的6家银行赚取了70亿美元利润中的大部分。许多公司大量举债购买飞机，而这些飞机已因病毒停飞。出现赤字的90多个国家的净债务(根据飞机租赁调整)平均是EBITDAR(衡量航空公司利润的指标)的6倍。国际航空运输协会称，今年1月份，一般的航空公司都有足够的现金来支付50%到80%的短期债务和大约两个月的收入。如果超过三个月，四分之三的航空公司将无法支付费用。