2020年经济学人 尽在掌控--疫情让政府加大干预力度(1)（在线收听）

Leaders

来源于3月28日《社论》版块

Everything’s under control

一切都在控制中

Big government is needed to fight the pandemic. It may not shrink again afterwards

抗击疫情需要大政府。之后它可能不会再收缩

In just a few weeks a virus a ten-thousandth of a millimetre in diameter has transformed Western democracies. States have shut down businesses and sealed people indoors. They have promised trillions of dollars to keep the economy on life support. If South Korea and Singapore are a guide, medical and electronic privacy are about to be cast aside. It is the most dramatic extension of state power since the second world war.

在短短几周内，一种直径只有万分之一毫米的病毒就改变了西方民主国家。各州已经关闭了企业，并让人们在家里隔离。他们承诺投入数万亿美元来保持经济活力。如果韩国和新加坡是一个向导，医疗和电子隐私将被抛在一边。这是自第二次世界大战以来国家权力最引人注目的扩张。

One taboo after another has been broken. Not just in the threat of fines or prison for ordinary people doing ordinary things, but also in the size and scope of the government’s role in the economy. In America Congress is poised to pass a package worth almost $2trn, 10% of GDP, twice what was promised in 2007-09. Credit guarantees by Britain, France and other countries are worth 15% of GDP. Central banks are printing money and using it to buy assets they used to spurn. For a while, at least, governments are seeking to ban bankruptcy.

一个又一个禁忌被打破了。不仅是对做普通事情的普通人处以罚款或监禁的威胁，还包括政府在经济中作用的规模和范围。美国国会准备通过一项价值近2万亿美元的一揽子计划，占GDP的10%，是2007-09年承诺数额的两倍。英国、法国和其他国家的信用担保占GDP的15%。各国央行正在印钞，并利用这些钱来购买过去不愿购买的资产。至少在一段时间内，政府正寻求禁止破产。

For believers in limited government and open markets, covid-19 poses a problem. The state must act decisively. But history suggests that after crises the state does not give up all the ground it has taken. Today that has implications not just for the economy, but also for the surveillance of individuals.

对于信奉有限政府和开放市场的人来说，covid-19带来了一个问题。国家必须果断行动。但历史表明，在危机过后，政府不会放弃所占据的一切。如今，这不仅对经济有影响，对个人监控也有影响。

It is no accident that the state grows during crises. Governments might have stumbled in the pandemic, but they alone can coerce and mobilise vast resources rapidly. Today they are needed to enforce business closures and isolation to stop the virus. Only they can help offset the resulting economic collapse. In America and the euro area GDP could drop by 5-10% year-on-year, perhaps more.

国家在危机中发展并非偶然。各国政府可能在这场大流行中步履蹒跚，但只有政府才能迅速发力调动大量资源。如今，他们需要强制企业关闭和隔离来阻止病毒。只有它们才能帮助抵消由此带来的经济崩溃。美国和欧元区的GDP可能会同比下降5-10%，甚至更多。