2020年经济学人 尽在掌控--疫情让政府加大干预力度(2)（在线收听）

One reason the state’s role has changed so rapidly is that covid-19 spreads like wildfire. In less than four months it has gone from a market in Wuhan to almost every country in the world. The past week logged 253,000 new cases. People are scared of the example of Italy, where almost 74,000 recorded cases have overwhelmed a world-class health system, leading to over 7,500 deaths.

国家的角色变化如此之快的一个原因是covid-19像野火一样迅速蔓延。在不到四个月的时间里，发展到世界上几乎每个国家。过去一周新增病例达25.3万例。人们非常害怕，以意大利为例，该国近7.4万例记录在案的病例使世界一流的卫生系统不堪重负，导致逾7500人死亡。

That fear is the other reason for rapid change. When Britain’s government tried to hang back so as to minimise state interference, it was accused of doing too little, too late. France, by contrast, passed a law this week giving the government the power not just to control people’s movements, but also to manage prices and requisition goods. During the crisis its president, Emmanuel Macron, has seen his approval ratings soar.

这种恐惧是快速变化的另一个原因。当英国政府试图退缩以尽量减少国家干预时，却被指责做得太少、太迟。相比之下，法国本周通过了一项法律，赋予政府不仅可以控制人们出行，还可以管理价格和征用商品的权力。在危机期间，法国总统埃马纽埃尔?马克龙的支持率一路飙升。

In most of the world the state has so far responded to covid-19 with a mix of coercion and economic heft. As the pandemic proceeds, it is also likely to exploit its unique power to monitor people using their data. Phone data help modeler’s predict the spread of the disease. South Korea says that automatically tracing the contacts of fresh infections, using mobile technology, gets results in ten minutes instead of 24 hours.

到目前为止，世界上大多数国家对covid-19的反应都是高压政治和经济实力。随着疫情持续，国家利用其特殊力量使用数据监控人们也是有可能的。手机数据帮助建模师预测疾病的传播。韩国表示，使用移动技术自动追踪新感染病例的接触者不用24小时只需10分钟就能得到结果。

This vast increase in state power has taken place with almost no time for debate. Some will reassure themselves that it is just temporary and that it will leave almost no mark, as with Spanish flu a century ago. However, the scale of the response makes covid-19 more like a war or the Depression. And here the record suggests that crises lead to a permanently bigger state with many more powers and responsibilities and the taxes to pay for them. The welfare state, income tax, nationalisation, all grew out of conflict and crisis.

国家权力的巨大增长几乎没有时间进行辩论。有些人会自我安慰说，这只是暂时的，几乎不会留下任何痕迹，就像一个世纪前的西班牙流感一样。然而，这种反应的规模使covid-19更像是一场战争或大萧条。而这里的记录表明，危机会导致一个永久性在政治上更大的国家，拥有更多权力和责任，并为此支付更多税收。福利国家、所得税、国有化，都是在冲突和危机中产生的。

As that list suggests, some of today’s changes will be desirable. It would be good if governments were better prepared for the next pandemic; so, too, if they invested in public health, including in America, where reform is badly needed. Some countries need decent sick pay.

正如这份清单所显示的，如今的一些变化将是可取的。如果各国政府能更好地为下一次疫情做好准备，那将是一件好事；如果他们投资于公共卫生，包括急需改革的美国，也会如此。一些国家需要像样的病假工资。