2020年经济学人 欧元区面临经济考验(1)（在线收听）

Leaders

来源于《社论》版块

The euro area

欧元区

Cut to the chase

开门见山

Look out for a panic about the single currency. If it cannot integrate further it will break up

警惕对单一货币的恐慌。如果它不能进一步整合，就会分裂

The euro area is set for its deepest downturn and its sternest economic test yet. Some forecasters expect GDP to shrink by nearly a tenth in 2020. But as history is being made, it is also being repeated. Talks between Europe’s politicians about the covid-19 crisis have descended into yet another ugly row over which countries gain and lose from a common currency. The acrimony has its roots in Europe’s sovereign-debt crisis in 2010-12, when stricken southerners pleaded for solidarity and northerners refused to bail out what they saw as bad behaviour.

欧元区将面临有史以来最严重的经济衰退和最严峻的经济考验。一些预测者预计，到2020年，GDP将缩水近十分之一。但在创造历史的同时，历史也在重演。欧洲政客之间关于covid-19危机的谈判已演变成另一场关于各国从共同货币中得失的丑陋争吵。2010年至2012年的欧洲主权债务危机是这场口水战的根源，当时饱受打击的南方人呼吁团结一致，而北方人则拒绝救助他们眼中的不良行为。

Back then the euro area avoided collapse largely thanks to action by the European Central Bank (ECB). The euro zone has since had a chance to pass deep reforms in order to deal with its fragility once and for all, but the time was ill-used. Having given up their monetary independence long ago and failed to cut public debt, some countries cannot deal with the crisis on their own. They need help from stronger economies in the north.

当时，多亏欧洲中央银行(ECB)的行动，欧元区才得以避免崩溃。为了一劳永逸地解决自身的脆弱性，欧元区本来有机会通过深度改革，但却没有好好利用这个机会。一些国家早就放弃了货币独立，也未能削减公共债务，因此无法独自应对危机。他们需要北方强大经济体的帮助。

To avoid a deep and enduring slump, the southern countries need government spending that will shore up their economies today and relaunch them when the pandemic has abated. Yet this spending will sharply increase their debts. In Italy public borrowings are already worth 135% of GDP, and that figure could easily rise to well over 150% with even a modest stimulus. If its government spends freely, investors could panic about an eventual default or debt restructuring. Greece, Spain— and even France—face the same hard choices.

为了避免严重而持久的经济衰退，南方国家需要政府支出来支撑他们今天的经济，并在流感大流行减弱后重新启动经济。然而，这些支出将大幅增加他们的债务。在意大利，公共借款已经占到GDP的135%，而且这个数字很容易上升到150%以上，即使是一个温和的刺激。如果政府大手大脚地花钱，投资者可能会对最终的违约或债务重组感到恐慌。希腊、西班牙——甚至法国——都面临着同样的艰难选择。

The temptation is to dither. Southern borrowing costs are higher than the north’s but not near panic levels. Italy’s ten-year bonds yield about two percentage points more than Germany’s. After fumbling, the ECB has tried to limit the damage by acquiring bonds and relaxing rules about what it buys.

诱惑是犹豫。韩国的借贷成本高于朝鲜，但还没有达到恐慌的程度。意大利十年期债券的收益率比德国高出约两个百分点。在摸索之后，欧洲央行试图通过购买债券和放松购买规定来限制损失。