2020年经济学人 发达国家经济衰退(2)（在线收听）

The shape of the corporate sector is the second consideration.

经济部门的形态是第二个考虑因素。

Economies with a large share of small firms are more likely to be scarred by long shutdowns.

拥有众多小公司的经济体更有可能因长期停工而伤痕累累。

Minnows tend to have few if any cash buffers, making it hard for them to survive a drought in revenues.

小公司没有多少现金可以周转，这让它们很难在收入减少的情况下生存下来。

A survey by researchers at the University of Chicago, Harvard University and the University of Illinois

芝加哥大学、哈佛大学以及伊利诺伊大学的研究人员进行一项调查发现，

finds that a quarter of small firms in America do not have enough cash on hand to last even a month.

美国四分之一的小公司的现金甚至不足以支撑一个月。

Nearly half of Italians and Australians work for firms with fewer than ten employees, compared with a fifth in Britain and an even lower share in America.

近一半的意大利人和澳大利亚人就职于员工人数少于10人的公司，相比之下，英国有五分之一，美国的比例更低。

A third determinant of the economic pain to come is the nature of fiscal support.

经济危机的第三个决定性因素是财政支持的本质。

Rich countries have deployed stimulus on an unprecedented scale. Even by the most conservative estimate,

发达国家会实施大规模经济刺激计划。即使按照最保守的估计，

these packages are more than twice as large as in 2008-09. But the size of the stimulus varies widely across countries.

这些计划的规模也是2008到2009年间的两倍多。但各国刺激计划的规模差别很大。

Most tallies find that support in America and Japan is the most generous, as a share of GDP;

大多数统计发现，美国和日本的财政支持占GDP比例最高；

investors, who see their assets as a haven, are happy to provide the necessary funding.

将自己的资产视为避风港的投资者很乐意提供必要的资金。

Yet some euro-area governments with high debt levels are more cautious, perhaps constrained by the fear that,

但一些债台高筑的欧元区政府则更加谨慎，可能是担心，

as members of a currency union, they enjoy only a partial backstop from the central bank.

作为货币联盟的成员，他们只享受到中央银行的部分支持。

The average fiscal boost in France, Spain and Italy, as a share of GDP, is about half of that provided in Germany.

法国、西班牙和意大利的平均财政刺激占GDP的比例约为德国的一半。

The design of the stimulus, though, matters as much as its size.

虽然，刺激计划的设计和其规模一样重要。

Broadly speaking, rich countries have taken one of two approaches to preserving living standards.

一般来说，发达国家采取了两者之一来维持生活水平。

Some are concentrating on supplementing household incomes.

一些国家专注于增加家庭收入。

America is sending cheques to families and making unemployment benefits far more generous; Japan is offering handouts to the needy.

美国向美国家庭发放支票，让失业津贴更加可观；日本在向穷人发放救济品。

By contrast, policy in northern Europe and Australia aims mostly to maintain employment by subsidising wages.

相比之下，北欧和澳大利亚的政策主要是通过补贴工资来维持就业。

Government pledges to protect jobs are normally a bad idea.

政府承诺保护就业通常是个坏主意。

They prevent workers moving from failing sectors to up-and-coming ones, slowing the recovery. The coronavirus recession may be different, however.

这样就阻止工人从衰退的行业转向有前途的行业，从而减缓了经济复苏。但冠状病毒所导致的经济衰退可能不一样。

If the lockdowns are lifted soon, some European economies will be able to resume production quickly.

如果很快解除封锁，那么一些欧洲经济体将能够迅速恢复生产。

Elsewhere workers will have to search for jobs, and bosses to hire them.

在其他地方，工人们将需要寻找工作，而老板们要雇佣他们。

Some American workers will even do better to stay on benefits than find work; according to Noah Williams of the University of Wisconsin-Madison,

一些美国工人甚至会继续领取救济金，而不去找工作；根据威斯康星大学的Noah Williams，

benefits in six states could exceed 130% of the average wage.

六个州的福利超过了平均工资的130%。

That will mean it takes longer for GDP to recover its pre-pandemic level once the lockdowns lift.

这将意味着，一旦解除封锁，GDP将需要更长的时间才能恢复到疫前水平。

Instead of leading to a painful few months, the damage could be much longer-lasting.

这种伤害可能会持续更长时间，而不仅是几个月。