2020年经济学人 一周要闻 沙俄结束石油价格战 股票市场剧烈波动 亚马逊股价创新高（在线收听）

The world this week

本周要闻

Business

商业

Saudi Arabia and Russia ended their oil-price war, agreeing to a deal that will see oil-producing countries cut output by a record 9.7m barrels a day over the next two months, around 10% of global supply. There will be smaller cuts thereafter. The rally in oil markets that greeted the announcement soon faded, however. The International Energy Agency forecast that global demand for oil will fall by 9.3m barrels a day in 2020. This month “may go down as Black April in the history of the oil industry”, said the head of the agency.

沙特和俄罗斯结束了他们的石油价格战争，双方达成了一项的协议，在接下来的两个月里，每天减产970万桶（创纪录），约占全球供应量的10%。此后会有更小幅度的减产。然而，石油市场对这一消息的反弹很快就消退了。国际能源机构(IEA)预测，到2020年，全球石油需求将同比下降930万桶/日。该机构负责人表示，该月“或将成为石油工业史上的黑色四月”。

In its direst warning yet about the effects of the pandemic, the IMF said that “the great lockdown” will result in the biggest economic downturn since the Depression. Assuming that COVID-19 and restrictions on daily life peak in the second quarter, the fund thinks global GDP will shrink by 3% this year, although advanced economies are expected to contract by an average 6.1%. If the crisis does not ease in the second half the world economy could shrink by a further 3%. The fund urged countries to continue with measures to slow the spread of the disease so that economic activity can resume.

国际货币基金组织(IMF)发出了迄今为止有关新冠大流行影响的最严重警告，称“大封锁”将导致自大萧条(Depression)以来最严重的经济低迷。假设新冠疫情和对日常生活的限制在第二季度达到高峰，该组织认为今年全球GDP将收缩3%，尽管发达经济体预计将平均收缩6.1%。如果危机在下半年得不到缓解，那么全球经济可能会进一步收缩3%。该组织敦促各国继续采取措施减缓疫情蔓延，以便恢复经济活动。

The Federal Reserve took more unprecedented measures to prop up the American economy, announcing a series of programmes that will provide $2.3trn in credit and support to households, businesses and state and local governments. The central bank is backing up to $600bn in loans to small and mid-sized firms, which must demonstrate a “reasonable effort” to retain staff. The Fed surprised markets by expanding its interventions to include buying stakes in exchange-traded funds that own risky, high-yield debt.

美联储采取了更多前所未有的措施来支撑美国经济，宣布了一系列计划，将向家庭、企业、州和地方政府提供2.3万亿美元的信贷和支持。美联储正在向中小企业发放至多6000亿美元的贷款，这些贷款必须显示出保留员工的“合理努力”。令市场意外的是，美联储扩大了干预范围，包括购买持有高风险、高收益债券的交易所交易基金(ETF)的股份。

Irrational exuberance

不合理的繁荣

Stockmarkets continued to swing wildly. The s&p 500 had its best week since 1974 for the four days ending April 9th, rising by 12% (markets were closed on Good Friday).

股票市场继续剧烈波动。标准普尔500指数在截至4月9日的四天里创下了1974年以来的最大单周涨幅，上涨了12%（金融市场因耶稣受难日休市）。

At an emergency meeting South Africa’s central bank slashed its benchmark interest rate by another one percentage point, following a cut last month of the same size. The repo rate is now 4.25%, a record low. The move came after a further downgrade to credit ratings on South African debt, making it harder for the government to borrow.

在一次紧急会议上，南非央行将基准利率再次下调1个百分点，此前该行在上月也下调了同样幅度的利率。回购利率目前为4.25%，创历史新低。在此之前，南非的债务信用评级被进一步下调，导致政府借款难上加难。

The Asian Development Bank tripled the size of its aid package to member countries to $20bn. That includes some grants to governments to buy medical and personal protective equipment.

亚洲开发银行将其对成员国的援助规模扩大了两倍，至200亿美元。这包括向政府提供一些拨款，用于购买医疗和个人防护设备。

Retail sales in America fell by 8.7% in March compared with February, the biggest decline since the official run of data began three decades ago.

与2月份相比，美国3月份的零售额下降了8.7%，这是自30年前官方数据开始统计以来的最大降幅。

Releasing their first-quarter earnings, big banks in America revealed that they are putting billions aside to guard against an expected surge in loan defaults. JPMorgan Chase’s credit costs rose to $8.3bn in the quarter, for example, resulting in a sharp fall in net profit, to $2.9bn.

美国各大银行在发布第一季度财报时透露，他们准备拨出数十亿美元以防范预期的贷款违约激增。例如，摩根大通(JPMorgan Chase)本季度的信贷成本升至83亿美元，导致净利润大幅下降至29亿美元。

America’s biggest airlines said they had agreed to the terms of a $25bn bail-out from the government. Under the deal dividends will be suspended. American Airlines is to receive a direct grant of $4.1bn, a low-interest loan of $1.7bn, and will apply for a separate $4.8bn loan from the Treasury.

美国最大的几家航空公司表示，他们已同意接受政府提供的250亿美元的纾困条款。根据协议，股息将暂停发放。美国航空公司(American Airlines)将获得41亿美元的直接拨款和17亿美元的低息贷款，并将额外从美国财政部申请48亿美元的贷款。

In response to the surge in online shopping Amazon is employing another 75,000 staff, on top of the 100,000 additional workers it hired recently. In Seattle Amazon sacked two activist employees for continuing to post claims on Twitter that conditions at its warehouses during the pandemic are unsafe. In France Amazon closed its warehouses for cleaning after a court said it should do more to protect staff.

为了应对在线购物的激增，亚马逊在最近增加10万名员工的基础上，又新增了7.5万名员工。在西雅图，亚马逊解雇了两名员工，原因是他们不断在推特上抱怨称，在新冠病毒大流行期间，公司仓库的工作环境不安全。在法国，一家法院表示亚马逊应该采取更多措施保护员工后，亚马逊关闭了其仓库进行消杀。

Amazon’s share price hit new highs. It is up by a third since mid-March, giving the company a market value of $1.15trn.

亚马逊的股价再创新高。自3月中旬以来，该公司股价已上涨三分之一，使其市值达到1.15万亿美元。

Closing time

停业时间

Forced to shut without much notice, Britain’s pub industry pondered what to do with an estimated 50m pints of beer lying undrunk in cellars. The rules have been relaxed on reclaiming tax for ullage, or wasted beer, so that the man from the brewery does not need to be present when it is disposed of, though social distancing is making it hard to lift the full kegs. With pubs closed, alcohol sales in supermarkets have soared.

英国的酒吧行业在没有接到太多通知的情况下被迫关门，他们在考虑如何处理酒窖里约5000万品脱的啤酒。对于回收滞销啤酒（废弃啤酒）的征税规定已经放宽，所以当处理这些啤酒时，酿酒厂的工作人员无需在场，尽管遵循社交距离导致人们无法开怀对饮。随着酒吧停业，超市里的酒类销量飙升。