2020年经济学人 英国新移民政策排除英国依赖的主要工作者(2)（在线收听）

A paper by researchers at Oxford University, published on May 14th, finds that nearly one in five of those working in essential care-related occupations are immigrants. In all, a little more than half of EU migrants now classed as key workers would not have qualified for a work visa under the new dispensation. Using a different definition of key worker (the category is blurry), the Institute for Public Policy Research, a think-tank, finds that 71% of such migrants would have been excluded.

牛津大学的研究人员在5月14日发表的一篇论文中发现，在从事与基本护理相关的职业的人中，近五分之一是移民。总之，现在被列为关键工人的欧盟移民中，略超过一半的人在新的制度下没有资格获得工作签证。智库“公共政策研究所”对于关键工人采用了不同的定义，发现这样的移民中有71%被排除在外。

In one sense, the pandemic takes the pressure off. A deep recession should limit the need to import low-paid workers, since there will be a large pool of unemployed domestic labour. Yet farms are flying in workers from Romania, suggesting that Britons on their uppers might hesitate before taking back-breaking or low-paid jobs.

从某种意义上来说，疫情减轻了压力。严重的经济衰退应该限制引入低薪工人的需求，因为国内会存在大量的失业劳动力。然而农场却使用飞机将罗马尼亚的工人接进来，这表明手头拮据的英国人对从事艰苦或低薪的工作感到犹豫。

The political argument for a restrictive regime is weakening. Voters were warming to immigration even before they voted to leave the EU and thereby restrict it. The scandal in 2018 over the government’s shoddy treatment of the Windrush generation of Caribbean migrants illustrated that, if the public senses injustice, crackdowns can prove as politically perilous as liberal approaches. A survey in March by Ipsosmori, a pollster, found that the overwhelming majority of voters want the number of migrants coming to Britain to work in care homes to stay the same or rise. Since the pandemic and its associated recession will significantly reduce overall immigration anyway,MsPatel can afford to be a little more generous.

关于严格制度的政治争论正在减弱。选民们甚至在投票退出欧盟从而限制移民之前就开始对移民问题趋之若鹜。政府在2018年对于加勒比海地区移民中的“疾风世代”进行了不公对待，该丑闻说明如果民众觉察到了不公，那么镇压可能会像开明的政策一样在政治上颇具风险。民调机构益普索3月的一项调查发现，绝大多数选民希望来英国养老院工作的移民人数保持不变或上升。因为疫情及其引发的经济衰退会大大减少整体的移民数量，帕特尔女士可以做的更加大方一点。