2020年经济学人 全球经济(2)（在线收听）

The first bubble is due to come to life on May 15th between Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, among Europe’s best performers in taming the virus.

第一个圈将于5月15日在爱沙尼亚、拉脱维亚和立陶宛之间出现，这些国家是欧洲在遏制病毒方面表现最好的国家之一。

Their citizens will be free to travel inside the zone without quarantine.

这些国家的公民将可以在区域内自由旅行而无需隔离。

The next might be a trans-Tasman bubble, tying New Zealand to Australia’s state of Tasmania, both of which have kept new cases down.

下一个可能是跨塔斯曼圈，将新西兰和澳大利亚的塔斯马尼亚州联系在一起，这两个州都降低了新病例的数量。

China and South Korea have launched a “fast track” entry channel for business people.

中韩两国开通了商务人士“快车道”准入渠道。

“My expectation is that there will be a large number of small travel bubbles,” Mr Cowling says.

考林表示:“我预计，旅游业将出现大量的小型旅游圈。”

But in the same way that regional trade deals are more efficient than bilateral pacts, the economic benefits from making the bubbles bigger would be greater.

但是，就像区域贸易协定比双边协定更有效一样，让旅游圈扩大所带来的经济利益也会更大。

Based on an analysis of infection data, The Economist sees two large zones that could emerge as bubbles, subsuming the smaller ones that are now being formed.

根据对感染数据的分析，《经济学人》认为有两个大区域可能会形成旅游圈，其中包括正在形成的较小区域。

The first is in the Asia-Pacific region, where countries from Japan to New Zealand have recorded fewer than ten new infections per 1m residents over the past week.

第一个是在亚太地区，从日本到新西兰，过去一周每100万居民新增感染人数不到10人。

The second is in Europe: using a laxer threshold—fewer than 100 new cases on the same basis—the bubble could reach from the Baltic to the Adriatic, and take in Germany.

第二个是在欧洲:采取较宽松的门槛——每100万居民新增病例少于100个——旅游圈可以从波罗的海到亚得里亚海，再延伸到德国。

Our AsiaPacific bubble would, thanks to China and Japan, account for 27% of global GDP.

亚太地区的中国和日本会让旅游圈占据全球GDP的27%。

Our European one would make up 8%. One measure of the potential value of the bubbles is their degree of trade integration, showing whether the economies are complementary.

欧洲占8%。衡量旅游圈潜在价值的一个标准是它们的贸易一体化程度，它可以反映出两国经济是否具有互补性。

For the countries in our Asia-Pacific bubble, an average of 51% of their overall trade is with each other.

对处于亚太旅游圈中的国家来说，彼此之间的贸易平均占其总贸易的51%。

In our Baltic-to-Adriatic bubble, it is 41%.

在波罗的海到亚得里亚海的旅游圈中，这个比例是41%。

Small countries would gain the most by reconnecting with larger neighbours.

通过与较大的邻国重新建立联系，小国将获得最大的利益。

Free movement would be especially helpful for countries such as Thailand and Greece that rely on tourism.

自由流动对泰国和希腊等依赖旅游业的国家尤其有帮助。