2020年经济学人 通货膨胀和股权收益(1)（在线收听）

In place where it has been long absent, it is hard to remember what a curse inflation is. In other places, it is hard to forget it. Take Zimbabwe.

在长期没有通货膨胀的地方，很难记得通货膨胀诅咒是什么。在其他地方，则很难忘记。例如，津巴布韦。

In 2008 it suffered an inflation rate in the squillions. Prices doubled every few weeks, then every few days.

在2008年，津巴布韦遭遇巨额通货膨胀。每隔几周价格就翻一番，然后是每隔几天。

Banknotes were so much confetti. Some people turned to equities as a store of value. A share purchased on Monday might be sold on Friday.

钞票就像是五彩纸屑。有些人转而把股票做为一种价值储存手段。周一买进的股票，可能在周五就被卖掉。

Harare's stock exchange was almost like a cash machine.

哈拉雷的证券交易所几乎就像是一台自动提款机。

In principle, equities are a good hedge against inflation. Business revenues should track consumer prices; and shares are claims on that revenue.

原则上，股票是一种很好的对冲通货膨胀的手段。企业收入应该遵循消费价格；股票是对该收入的索赔。

In some cases, they may be the only available hedge. Iran, for instance, has had one of the better performing stockmarkets,

在一些情况中，它们可能是唯一可用的对冲手段。例如，伊朗拥有表现较好的股票市场之一，

because locals have sought protection from inflation. Sanctions make it dangerous to keep money offshore.

因为当地居民从通货膨胀中寻求保护。制裁使得将资金存放海外变得危险。

Rich-country investors have a different sort of headache. Though the immediate outlook is for inflation to stay low, it could plausibly pick up later on.

富裕国家的投资者则有另一种头疼的问题。尽管当下的前景是通货膨胀保持在低位，但它很有可能会在随后回升。

If it does, edge cases like Zimbabwe or Iran are a bad guide. The link between inflation and equity returns is not straightforward.

如果回升，那么像津巴布韦或伊朗这样的极端例子就会成为一个糟糕的导向。通货膨胀和股权收益之间的关系并不简单。

Stocks are a decent inflation hedge in the long run. But over shorter horizons, there is an inverse relationship.

从长远来看，股票是一种不错的通货膨胀对冲工具。但在较短时间内，呈相反关系。

Rising inflation is associated with falling stock prices, and vice versa.

通货膨胀上升与股价下跌相关，反之亦然。

Start with the evidence that stocks beat inflation over the long haul. In the most recent Credit Suisse global investment returns yearbook,

第一个证据是，从长远来看，股票表现优于通货膨胀。 在瑞士信贷集团近期的长期调查《全球投资回报年鉴》中，

a long-running survey, Elroy Dimson, Paul Marsh and Mike Staunton show that global equities have returned an average 5.2% a year above inflation since 1900.

Elroy Dimson、Paul Marsh以及Mike Staunton发现，自1900年以来，扣除通胀因素，全球股市平均每年的回报率为5.2%。

You may quibble that the survey covers the sorts of stable places that have had a long run of stock prices in the first place, such as Britain and America.

你或许会辩称，这项调查涵盖了那些股票价格长期稳定的国家，比如英国和美国。

Even so, the finding fits with intuition. When you buy the equity market, you buy a cross-section of a country's real assets.

即便如此这一发现符合直觉。当你购买股票市场时，你购买的是一个国家实际资产的一个截面。

Yet stock investors still need to be mindful of inflation.

但股票投资者仍需要警惕通货膨胀。

Markets tend to put a lower value on a stream of cash flows when inflation rises; and a higher price on cash flows when it falls.

当通货膨胀上升时，市场倾向于降低现金流的价值；当通胀下降时，则会抬高现金流价值。