2020年经济学人 巴托比专栏--对经济衰退宣战(2)（在线收听）

If these findings are replicated elsewhere, furlough schemes may be adopted in future recessions. Some commentators point to the record of Germany, which suffered a much smaller rise in unemployment than other rich countries during the recession in 2008-09 because of a scheme that subsidised short-term working.

如果这些调查结果在其他地方也适用，那么休假计划可能也可以在未来发生经济衰退时实行。一些评论员提到了德国的例子，在2008-09年金融危机期间，德国失业率上升幅度远低于其他富裕国家，原因是该国政府补贴了短期工种。

There are two obvious concerns about such support schemes. The first is the cost. The British scheme, which started in March, is expected to cost around ￡60bn ($75bn) by the scheduled end in October, or a bit less than 3% of GDP. The second problem is that such schemes may prevent the necessary role that recessions play in “creative destruction”, whereby resources are reallocated from failing businesses to successful ones. The survival of “zombie” companies may make the next recovery less vigorous.

此类援助计划会引发两个明显的担忧。首先是成本。英国计划于三月份启动，预计到10月底将耗资600亿英镑（合750亿美元），略低于GDP的3%。第二个问题是，这类计划可能会阻碍经济衰退在“创造性破坏”中发挥的必要作用，“创造性破坏”是指资源从失败企业重新分配给成功企业。“僵尸”公司的存活可能会使之后的经济复苏缺乏活力。

On cost, the counterargument is that widespread job losses lead to deep recessions and thus sharp declines in government revenues. They can also be bad news for laid-off workers who may take years to find another job. Paying money upfront to reduce the severity of a recession can thus be a good investment in both social and economic terms.

在成本方面，相反的论调认为大规模失业会加剧经济衰退，从而导致政府收入大幅下降。对于那些需要花费多年才能找到另一份工作的下岗工人来说也是噩耗。因此，通过提前支付工资来减轻经济衰退的严重程度，无论从社会还是经济角度来看，都是一项不错的投资。

It would be great if governments could save only companies that have a viable long-term future. The analogy might be an old rule of thumb among central bankers that they should lend money in financial crises to banks that have a liquidity problem, not a solvency one. In practice, however, financial crises in recent decades have been so acute that central banks have mostly been unable or unwilling to discriminate. Similarly, while governments have imposed conditions on wage-support schemes in the current crisis, their main priority has been to dole out aid as quickly as possible in order to save jobs.

如果政府能够只挽救那些有长远发展前景的公司，那就太好了。就如同央行的银行家们信奉的一条古老的经验法则，即在金融危机中，他们应该为那些有流动性问题的银行提供贷款，而不是偿付能力有问题的银行。然而，实际上，近几十年的金融危机情况都很严峻，以至于各国的央行大多无法或不愿意区别对待。同样，尽管各国政府在当前危机中对工资援助计划施加了条件，但它们首要任务是尽快发放援助，以解决就业问题。

A lot more research is clearly needed to see whether furlough support schemes will have adverse long-term economic effects. The longer the schemes are in place, the more likely it is that market distortions will occur. But the principle that governments should intervene to support struggling banks and unemployed workers, as a way of reducing the severity of recessions, has long been established. It is conceivable to think that furlough schemes might eventually be viewed in the same light.

显然还需要更多的研究，以确定是否休假援助计划会对经济产生长期不利影响。这项计划实施的时间越长，市场扭曲的可能性会对大。但是我们早就确立了这样一条原则，政府应该进行干预以援助岌岌可危的银行和失业工人是减轻经济衰退严重程度的一种方式。可以想象，人们最终可能会以同样的眼观看待休假计划。