2020年经济学人印度银行——延期偿付(2)（打印版）

Banks' earnings reports for the second quarter, released over the past two weeks,

在过去两周发布的银行第二季度财报表明，

suggest that the take-up of the schemes may well have reflected the exigencies of lockdown.

这些方案的实施或许很好地反映了封锁的紧迫性。

Axis Bank and ICICI, large private lenders, reported that loans held under moratorium had fallen from 30% in April to under 20% in June;

大型私有银行，艾克塞斯银和印度工业信贷投资银行（ICICI）报道称，延期偿付下所持有的贷款从四月的30%降至6月的20%；

Kotak Mahindra reported a fall from 26% to 10%.

科塔克马辛德拉银行报告称，从26%降至10%。

State-owned banks are only beginning to release their earnings, but their use of the moratorium seems likely to have fallen too.

国有银行才刚开始公布他们的收益，但其延期偿付的申请率似乎也下降了。

Analysts are now asking whether loans and interest obligations will be fully repaid once the moratorium ends.

分析师正在询问，一旦延期偿付结束，是否需要全额偿还贷款和利息债务。

The RBI predicts that non-performing assets, as a share of the total, could rise from 8.5% in March to 12.5% in 2021.

RBI预测，无盈利效能的资产占总资产的比例，将从3月份的8.5%上升到2021年的12.5%。

It reckons this could exceed 16% for public-sector banks in a "severely stressed" scenario,

其认为，在“极度压力”的情况中，公共部门银行的这一比例可能会超过16%，

which would surely push some banks' capital ratios below regulatory requirements.

这肯定会将一些银行的资本比率压至监管要求以下。

Shaktikanta Das, the RBI's governor, urged banks to "proactively augment" capital now, rather than waiting for shortfalls to be revealed later.

RBI行长Shaktikanta Das敦促各银行现在就“主动增加”资本，而不是等着以后出现短缺。

On July 27th Fitch, a rating agency, was blunter, warning that "state banks face solvency risk without fresh capital injections".

7月27日，评级机构惠誉国际直率地警告称，“如果没有新的注资，国有银行将面临偿付风险”。

How much capital is needed is unclear, given the uncertainty over loan losses.

考虑到贷款损失的不确定性，需要多少资金尚不清楚。

In April Prakhar Sharma, an analyst at Jefferies, an investment bank,

四月，投资银行杰富瑞的一名分析师Prakhar Sharma称，

put the fresh capital needed by the public banks at 889bn rupees ($12bn) and at half that for the private lenders.

国有银行所需新资本为8890亿卢比（合120亿美元），私有银行为这个数字的一半。

Some banks are beginning to prepare themselves: Kotak Mahindra raised nearly $1bn in May;

一些银行开始做准备：科塔克马辛德拉银行在五月筹集到了近10亿美元；

ICICI plans to seek a similar amount, as does the State Bank of India, the country's largest lender.

ICICI计划寻求类似金额，该国最大银行——印度国家银行也如此。

But many of India's weaker banks, saddled with legacy problems and uncertain loan losses, are likely to attract scant interest from investors.

但印度很多实力较弱的银行，背负着遗留问题和不确定的贷款损失，他们可能难以吸引投资者的兴趣。

Much of the RBI's early response to the pandemic involved protecting borrowers.

RBI应对疫情的反应大多涉及保护借款方。

It may yet find itself being forced to step in to save some lenders.

它可能发现自己会被迫介入以拯救一些贷款方。