2020年经济学人 查理曼专栏--针对时下土耳其局势,葛兰运动难辞其咎(1)（在线收听）

Europe

欧洲板块

Charlemagne

查理曼专栏

The other villain

另一个反派

Fethullah Gulen shares blame for the state of Turkey today

对于时下土耳其局势，法土拉·葛兰难辞其咎

You might think that by now Turkey had run out of handcuffs. But although the wave of arrests related to the bizarre coup attempt that rocked the country in the summer of 2016 has certainly slowed, it has not stopped. Every week seems to bring a new round-up of suspected members of the Gulen community, or cemaat, the Islamist movement that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan blames for the coup. At least 41 people, many of them soldiers, were detained on July 27th. Warrants for over two dozen others were issued last week.

你可能会认为土耳其的手铐此刻已经用完了。土耳其在2016年夏季爆发了一场震惊全国的诡异政变，尽管与此有关的逮捕浪潮确实有所放缓，但并没有停止。土耳其政府似乎每周都会逮捕新一轮的葛兰社群疑似成员，总统雷杰普·塔伊普·埃尔多安将这次政变归咎于伊斯兰运动。7月27日，至少有41人被拘留，其中许多是士兵。上周土耳其政府又签发了20多份搜查令。

Nearly 600,000 people, most of them suspected Gulenists, have been investigated since the coup; nearly 100,000 have been arrested.Most had only tenuous links to the movement, such as having an account at a Gulenist bank. Some appear to have been tortured in captivity. But while there is sympathy among Turks for individual victims of Mr Erdogan’s purges, there is practically none for the cemaat as a whole, and even less for its leader, Fethullah Gulen, an ageing imam living in exile in Pennsylvania. Ask almost anyone in Turkey, including Mr Erdogan’s most bitter foes, and you will hear that compared with Mr Gulen, Turkey’s leader is the lesser of two evils. Mr Erdogan is an autocrat and a bully. But no one helped him cripple Turkey’s democracy more than Mr Gulen and his sect.

自政变以来，近60万人接受调查，其中大部分为疑似葛兰主义者；近10万人被逮捕。大多数人与葛兰运动只有微弱的联系，比如说在一家葛兰派的银行有账户。有些人似乎在囚禁中受到酷刑折磨。但是尽管土耳其人会对埃尔多安总统清洗活动的个别受害者抱有同情，但他们实际上并不同情整个葛兰社群，对于葛兰派的领导人法土拉·葛兰，一位流亡宾夕法尼亚州的年长伊玛目，更是如此。问一下几乎土耳其的所有人，包括埃尔多安总统最大的敌人，他们都会告诉你，两害取其轻，土耳其的领导人要强过葛兰。埃尔多安总统是一位独裁者，也是一位恶霸。但是葛兰及其教派最能削弱土耳其的民主，无人出其右。

The movement is a tough nut to crack. From the 1970s onwards, it attracted hundreds of thousands of followers, drawn mostly from among the poor and devout students who gravitated to its prep schools and dorms. After the end of the cold war, it began to market itself as the torchbearer of an enlightened Islam, setting up foundations abroad and winning a circle of Western well-wishers. But it was only when Mr Erdogan and his Justice and Development party came to power in 2002 that it started to flourish. Its sympathisers had previously trickled into Turkey’s bureaucracy. With Mr Erdogan’s encouragement, they took over entire institutions. (By one estimate, Gulenists held 30% of top jobs in the judiciary and 50% in the police.) With his approval, they orchestrated the arrests of thousands of Kurdish activists, army officers, secular types and journalists. “The Gulenists played a decisive role in enabling Erdogan to consolidate power,” says Gareth Jenkins, a security analyst.

葛兰运动是个棘手的难题。从20世纪70年代开始，它吸引了成千上万的信众，其中大多数是穷苦和虔诚的学生，他们会被吸引到葛兰派的预科学校和宿舍。冷战结束后，它将自己推销成指引伊斯兰教前行的火炬手，在国外设立基金会，并赢得了一大批西方祝福者的青睐。但直到埃尔多安总统和他的正义与发展党在2020年上台后，葛兰派才开始蓬勃发展。其支持者此前已经逐步进入土耳其的官僚机构。在埃尔多安总统的鼓励下，他们接管了整个官僚机构。（据估计，葛兰主义者接管了司法部门30%的高层职位以及50%的警察部门职位。）在埃尔多安总统的批准下，他们策划逮捕了数千名库尔德活动人士、军官、世俗人士和记者。“古伦派在帮助埃尔多安巩固权力方面发挥了决定性作用，”安全分析师加雷思·詹金斯说。